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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirRealist who wrote (38088)	8/16/2002 6:56:35 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 281500

"Janes" reports a positive outlook on the Iraqi war. 14 August 2002 After Saddam is defeated: a confidential American projection of a new Middle East If the Western media and armchair generals are to be believed, the impending war against Iraq will be disastrous. The world oil price will rise and financial markets will remain wobbly. The backlash against the US and its allies will be huge, perhaps toppling pro-Western monarchies and governments in the Gulf and Middle East. This is the received wisdom of the critics. Foreign Report has had access to the thinking of advocates in the Bush administration about the US intervention in Iraq. Although the risks inherent in any war cannot be overlooked, the critics may exaggerate the dangers and underestimate the advantages for the entire Middle East should the operation go well. At the outset, remember who the critics are. They are the people who predicted Armageddon in all recent conflicts. The critics claimed a decade ago that the war to remove Saddam from Kuwait would last 'for decades'; its most intensive phase lasted less than a month. They also said that 'huge numbers' of Western soldiers would be killed. In fact, hundreds died. They predicted that Saddam's Republican Guards would 'fight to the end'; in fact, they ran away. Could the critics be wrong again? Saddam Hussein is not Bin Laden. He is a classic dictator, dependent on the apparatus of a state, a disciplined security service and a small clan of his own people, the Takritis, who are despised by most ordinary Iraqis, not to speak of other Arabs in the Middle East. When his regime begins to collapse, he will be finished. The West failed them When Saddam was evicted from Kuwait and the people were less fearful, spontaneous rebellions against him started throughout Iraq. These failed because the West failed to give them any support; now, with the West eager to help when such rebellions start, they may well prove fatal for the Iraqi dictator. True, the price of oil will go up, and political uncertainty will affect financial markets. But the US is now hugely expanding its strategic oil reserves, and Opec, with low world prices, can do little to block it. Moreover, Russia is being friendly because it wants to sell more oil to America. True, the opposition in Iraq is divided and ineffective. But this was even more the case in Afghanistan, yet a government of sorts was put together very quickly, and it is still holding together. The conjuring trick can be repeated. A new government will not deliver the 'full Monty' and will probably not be stable. But it will be infinitely better than the present regime. And US planners are much more attracted by the enormous boosts to the entire region that will take place should Saddam Hussein be removed from the scene. janes.com