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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Philip W. Dunton, Jr who wrote (65336)	8/16/2002 10:17:38 AM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 70976

Philip, Actually in my view, we have been in recession for sometime. I ignore the definitions of negative growth. Slow growth with a one quarter abberation is enough for me. We dont get out of it until we have a few quarters at normal or above growth. A strong 4th quarter with legs could be just what we need. To do that we must keep housing and retail strong thru the end of the year in order to give capex time to pick up. And in order for capex to pick up in time fed must somehow find a way to get capital to less than 1A borrowers. Then the spending will begin again. Lowering rates alone is not enough or even necessary in my view. Its compelling the banks to take risks which involves jawboning and some tacit guarantees to those banks. Mike