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To: Paul Shread who wrote (50374)	8/16/2002 1:14:08 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

could confirm your deep retracement in non-tech, new lows in tech theory The way things are going, I may have to moderate to "shallow retracement in non-tech, deep retracement in tech". -g/ng

To: Paul Shread who wrote (50374)	8/16/2002 1:25:31 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Just to get it out on the thread for discussion something a few have us have been talking about in PM's. I think it is very bearish for the autumn if go up from here. Sure, it will kill all the Sep puts, and a large number of Oct's, but I think that the really bullish road for non-tech would lie in pulling back from the brink here and doing a scary retracement. As of last week, I am favouring that the Dow low is in: Message 17855693 The roadmap that sees us grinding higher for a long time calls for the following to happen: 1) Beginning next week, non-tech and tech turn down. Tech makes new lows but the Dow does not. It only goes down to a wide range, very roughly, between 8250 and 7850. Now that's a big range, but who gives a damn; the trade in question would be one held for weeks, likely months. 2) The both turn up, with tech climbing out of lows equivalent to the July 24 low in non-tech, so a 1 up in tech. Non-tech would be starting a 'C' or a '3' up. With both going in the same direction, we should get a real trend. Not this 500 Dow points up, 300 down crap, but the more durable small ups and backfill. If on the other hand, we just meltup to SPX 980, which I think is the bearish scenario in the timeframe I am talking, then I do not think it is sustainable and I see the entire market heading back to new lows. (For you wide timeframe Elliott types, the really bullish alternate is my alternate from forever -- that this is not correcting the entire rise from 1932, but is only correcting out of 1982. In other words, that the Dow has put in a wave 4 and is headed to new highs. Now this is a level above what I am looking for with my bullish scenario for the Dow, but it's something I consider.) BTW, a somewhat similar setup happened in March and April of 2001, when the Dow and S&P low was put in before the tech low. The banks, retailers, drugs and oil kept the non-tech side higher.