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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Von who wrote (5656)	8/16/2002 2:31:39 PM
From: TheBusDriver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8010

>>What do you see as a buy point for silver.>> simple answer is I don't know. But it sure looks to me like we will test previous lows of $3.88 as a minimum. Others think it could be much lower. I got this link in a PM and think it is pretty good: clifdroke.com <<The charts seem to be agreeing with the latter.>> Can't argue with that. I WANT to be bullish. I learned a long time about that Bob knows what he is talking about. So, although he drives me crazy<g>, I have learned to heed what he says and not discount it out of hand. In the long term he has made the correct call. So we go lower I think. Somewhere between $3.88 and $3.40. I don't know where. Bob, you should offer your opinion here as well. Wayne

To: Von who wrote (5656)	8/16/2002 2:42:34 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8010

There has been a gap between supply (primary production and secondary scrap) and total demand for about a decade, which has resulted in the decrease of stockpiles. The potential depletion of this stockpile has resulted in many a verbose essay and many years of the same predictions of a great boom in silver prices. The trend I look at has been the decrease in the gap over the last five years. Silver production has been booming, especially in Australia, Peru, and Mexico. Meanwhile demand has been relatively flat. The gap is down to around 100moz (or less?) and continues to be easily filled by Chinese stockpiles. My previously stated position is the gap will continue to close. If supply keeps rising and demand stays flat we will hit surplus before stockpiles are depleted (no crisis - no squeeze) Long-term I see copper and gold mining in South America as the real problem for silver. Mines such as Antamina (copper) which just went online will add 8-10moz of silver to the equation. There are many viable copper projects in the planning stages with huge silver byproduct. Meanwhile, gold mines in Chile/Peru/Argentina have a lot of silver in them relative to most other worldwide locations. Improved gold prices will put Veladero, then Pascua Lama and other into production meaning more silver. I think this is enough to hold silver around $5. If that isn't enough CDE and PAAS are increasing silver production now, and any increase in silver prices will bring Apex and others online. There are billions of ounces of silver resources that become reserves around $6, and all miners will rush to get those into production if we get near that level - effectively a cap on prices ! I do not see much downside at $4.50, but upside is minimal. You might have some fun trading silver stocks, but I'd rather spend my time on gold stocks.