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To: The Freep who wrote (50479)8/16/2002 5:29:15 PM
From: Paul Shread  Respond to of 209892
 
Non-commercials are short the big S&P contract by 70,500 to 30,000, a truly scary number, IMHO.

cftc.gov

On the other hand, the saw is that the commercials are long at the bottom, and they aren't there yet. Doesn't rule out an IT bottom, though.



To: The Freep who wrote (50479)8/16/2002 5:30:29 PM
From: Shack  Respond to of 209892
 
Its tough to say what it means Freep, but I have mentioned before that I have found nearly no predictive value in the NDX large contract COT report. Small specs were quite long the large contract through that entire ramp last fall .

Now the e-mini dos indeed seem to have some value. The small specs faded the ramp last fall and did not go clown long until the winter top. Seems to be ultra-dumb money there.