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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5292)	8/17/2002 2:22:12 AM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Gene, where's the Veef? I don't see it.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5292)	8/17/2002 7:51:55 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

i'm having trouble seeing a V...are you looking at the Jun/Jul '02 ramp?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5292)	8/17/2002 2:42:57 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

This is why it is so hard to follow you guys. The 32-33 bottom WAS v shaped gene.....count the many V shaped bottoms on the way down from 29-32..... sharelynx.net i see many fake bottoms going down......and the final bottom was more a rounding bottom..... dow bottom was 89% loss....nasdaq 89% loss = around 700....still 50% down from here.... why are we hard to follow...... heres this years chart.... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20011117,20020817][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G note the 2098 top....down then ramp to 1946...folks thought that was a bottom.....wrong note after 1946 top then down to 1560....ramp to 1759....folks thought that was the bottom....wrong. note the big drop from 1759 to 1192.....folks think this is the bottom......the one we called here since may perfect... heres the retrace..... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19940817,19980802][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G note the same tops 2028=2098.....1931=1946....1748=1759.... each had its dumps off those tops....little rallies to lather folks up again....then more dumps....and each dump gets bigger going down...... again note the 1192 bottom and rally back showing a 1400 top.....we all knew this rally was in the retrace.....and here we are.....just like all the others before it.... you say the economy is improving.....what!!!!! i guess you missed all the news the last few weeks or got so wrapped up in an options ramp week where all the bad news gets ignored... GDP got revised down....can't trust those numbers anymore....the consumer numbers are getting worse all the time....even CSCO offered no guidance....fiber op dead till 2004...semi's till mid 2003 at the earliest.....the fed see's further weakness ahead.... so now even though all these past ramps shown on the retrace and this years chart were more bogus rallies....you think we should give up now and join the bagholders who got sucked in by all the "other" ramps..... why.... everything may look rosy now....but so did those ramps up higher.....NDX made a lower low and SPX "pierced" a major long term trend line......the economy is getting worse and we are entering tax loss selling by mutual funds..... this right here is the bagholder run right before big money starts dumping big time going into the fall..... remember the sell in may and go away saying.....look at the may time frame.....first they shook out folks fast with a scary drop.....then ramped back up making folks think they made a mistake and many probably jumped back in again only to watch the long bleed to 1192...... as far as i'm concerned.....thats what you are seeing now......theres always a ramp before a major dump....for many reasons.... and the next dump heads to 1000....now whether that dump starts here or at 1400...or at 1459....or 1500.....its coming because bubbles retraces won't end at a bottom advertised on t.v as the one..... just think.....last week nasdaq was still at 1265...only 70 some points off the bottom....if you think this is the bottom.....and it triples in 24 months....heck...we didn't miss anything yet because its still very early.... you know....even if this heads to 1000....it will be like this whole down this year.....with ramps and dumps so it will feel like you are not losing your ass.....you get your pocket picked but it won't feel like it.... so theres something for everybody in this market....longs and shorts.....each will have their days.....each will suffer..... but when you look at the big picture.....its obvious shorts have had the better of it..... and if the retrace does the full monty....longs buying into yet another bottom here will be hurt bad.... right now the best place to be is neither bull or bear... but cautious..... if this is the bottom.....at best it gets tested again...and folks get a safer play to get long....if this isn't the bottom....shorts still have a long way to go to 1000 so theres still plenty of time to get short...only folks getting clown long here going into sept-oct and tax selling are going to get toasted.... you are looking at 73-74 which has nothing to do with a bubble retrace...and you use the spx which isn't following the retrace perfect like the nasdaq has been.... yes....the nasdaq has been the key here....this years chart and the retrace prove that....even a child could see that... so tell me again.....what are we missing here...?????