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Pastimes : I AM A MINDLESS ZOMBIE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (91)	8/17/2002 6:36:48 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 258

He did and there was, from time to time. <Can you imagine the whining if our beloved Uncle Al had implemented a restrictive monetary policy from 1995 on? > I should go back and review it, but I think Smithers made a logical error in saying that because a company's effect on the total market was negligible, the discount rate blah blah blah. It was a bit coated in jargon, but I thought that perhaps he was making a mistake. Anyway, his correlations which he determined to be causal were so few and far between [q factor to recession] that the exogenous variables such as "Let's have a world war" or "Let's have a huge oil crisis and float the dollar" would completely overwhelm the q ratios. But I should read it again - it was fairly turgid and I concluded that they were trying to scientificize something which can't be scientificized and doing it in a non-scientific fashion. They wanted to show the EFH [efficient market hypothesis] is wrong. Well, duh! All we need to know is that the markets are made out of 6 billion people who have got barely a clue how to get home, let alone what makes the world tick, let alone that they have chimpoid brains, so of course the markets are going to be bipolar disorder writ large. Even the most clued up among us are grasping at straws even if we specialize in one company. So the totality isn't going to be magically 'an efficient market, correctly pricing the infinite array of variables'. Clueless, but happy, Zomby