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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (13480)	8/17/2002 12:39:02 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Concord EFS in Barrons online.wsj.com

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (13480)	8/17/2002 1:18:23 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 57684

On another note, James Morgan of Applied said on CNBC this week that he hasn't done an "IT refresh" since 1999, and is due. Sounds like there is significant pent up demand, which plays into Michael Dell's "stretched rubber band" simile. I could be software-centric, but I think the ERP companies and their upgrade cycles dictate Morgan's "IT refresh". They are an oracle shop, and its time for the oracle 11i upgrade which is the new n-tier architecture. They probably have the not-so-smart client version now. Applied has decided to outsource the software issues to an indian consulting firm, not sure which one. (I'm skeptical of this approach but its a trend, what can you say). Also to coincide with the upgrade they need to implement the middle-tier, which is very likely this- biz.yahoo.com (they don't have to buy new hardware ... but these middle tiers tend to be linux) that leaves the desktop, which for these apps will become "more thin". Thats why I think PC ASPs as they related to corporate IT spending are a red herring. Lots of new hardware might get sold for the middle tier above but why upgrade the desktop which is configured for the fat clients and overpowered now? Dell is growing in enterprise and laptops not desktop. I think it was techanalyst (where is he/she?) who said we aren't going to see stabilization in the naz until telecom starts spending on IT again. I almost agree, not necessarily telecom but these tech companies like applied need to take the lead again (like they always have) and set up a system to show the old-tech companies how it is done. Tech has always been the first mover. BTW sebl is on an upgrade cycle also but there are some issues with it, maybe it is where ora 11i was last year, perceived as still "buggy" and not in rapid adoption mode yet? (just a guess) Theres an issue with their client footprint. Still sebl is one of the big 4 with sap,psft,orcl- I can't see any reason for him to be depressed long term. Admittedly oracle has announced way more wins than siebel in PRs lately. L