A Little Labour Day trivia.
In all the carnage of the Market, I thought it would be interesting to look at the bigger picture. I always considered the end of '94 to mark the beginning of the last Bull run. Since 12/31/94, the SnP is up 100%, OEX is up 115%, and INDU is up 126%. The median for the Big Boyz is up 148% without the two fallen angels (Enron & Worldcom) and 146% with them.
I always use 8/31/00 as the end of the beginning, as it was a date for which I captured a lot of information. Since then, the SnP is down 40%, OEX is down 44%, and INDU is down 23%. The Big Boyz are down 32% without the two fallen angels and 38% with them. Besides the two fallen angels, it probably didn't feel good to have large positions in the 8 stocks that have lost more than 90% of their value (EMC, GLW, GTW, JDSU, LU, Q, SUNW, and YHOO).
In fact, of the 73 remaining Big Boyz, 52 are negative for price performance since the end of '98, 59 are negative since the end of '99, and 62 are negative since the end of '00. It is interesting that since 8/31/00, 15 of them are positive for price performance (ALL, BAC, CAT, FNM, G, IP, JNJ, MMM, MO, ONE, PG, S, UPS, WFC, and WMT).
The current median PE of the Big Boyz, based on TTM eps, is 24.0. This compares favorably with the last decade median of 23.1 (with a range of 16.9 to 29.8). The wildcard, as with any small set, is that a median ignors the "NM" PE ratios, and currently 20 of the Big Boyz (10 tech, 1 energy, 1 consumer durable, 4 telecom, 3 industrial cyclical, and 1 service) have negative TTM eps. If we take the median of the current price of $33.08 and divide it by the median of the TTM eps of $1.27, then we get a PE of 26.0.
Just some Trivia from the Swamp,
Berney |
