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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirRealist who wrote (50551)	8/17/2002 4:54:35 PM
From: John Madarasz	Respond to of 209892

i agree, but we've already had the downtrend channel breach on the NDX and COMPQ...look at the broker index daily...its already poked over it's 50dma after a SHARP move up, same with the BKX, soxx has already poked over the top of the downtrend channel, and on and on. In regards to major indices and broader market reads, with the exception of a few sector index charts, i have seen ZERO evidence of any kind of consolidation at major support on anything. more like big fast bounces that are forming into wedges. yes, we could definitely have a move over the next SERIOUS overhead resistances, but the bottom line is this... for the last 12 to 18 months, the play has been to short serious resistance, and NOT to wait for it to confirm. by the time it's confirmed... the risk reward entry has moved against you. same goes for support. you have to jump on it. you cannot wait for it to confirm or you are too late, and you miss not only the beginning, but quite often the meat of the move. That's the way it has been in this whipsaw volatility filled environment. program trading and hedge funds seem to be running the show alot lately. Maybe buy programs will kick in if 50 dma's are taken out, but as an objevtive aggresive trader trading the bigger trends, it's business as usual. you can't be subjective with all this extraneous stuff. if the target areas fail, you cut losses FAST for no/low loss One last word of advise from one of the best traders i've ever had the pleasure of working with... sharp moves to resistance are more likely to pullback than meandering moves...and SHARP moves to support are more likely to bounce than slower ones everyone is different, and i hope your play works out for you, but if T/A is creating a "certainty" of a pullback here for you...i have a hard time understanding why anyone would even consider holding long. Regardless, best of luck, and good trading, jm