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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5306)	8/17/2002 5:45:22 PM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

to my mind - and i'm not saying i'm right - it's a "V" if i can go out for lunch and miss the bottom by more then 5%. if it's within 5% of "the" bottom for a couple of weeks or more, i don't really think of it as a "v". it can look like one when you pull up a multiyear chart, but if you think about it in an "in the moment" sense, it isn't, really. like i said, that's how i think about it, doesn't mean i'm right. EDIT: i certainly hope i'm not giving the impression of slamming you, because that is certainly not my intention. i'm just trying to figure things out like everyone else...

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5306)	8/17/2002 6:40:37 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Eugene: re:("using 96-97 when it's convenient, and 32-33 when it works better.") My understanding is that our last bubble experience in the USA was the roaring 1920's. That bubble collapsed during the 1929-33 period when the NASDAQ did not exist. Thus I think that period is referred to to illustrate (model) what market action happens when a bubble collapses and it must apply to what happened to the DOW back then. In applying that DOW 1929-33 experience to the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble of the 1990's, I believe charts of NASDAQ's rise are referred to and read backwards from right to left to specifically follow the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble. Someone please correct me if I am wrong. This is my understanding. P

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5306)	8/17/2002 6:58:43 PM
From: Jeff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

All I originally asked is why, if we are following the 29-33 drop, is everyone is so sure there are more lows to come because that map says there isn't. gene.....if the dow lost 89% over 35 months from 29-32... and nasdaq is down 75% in 28 months...... where does it show on the map the retrace is over.... again the dow chart different look..... sharelynx.net it wiped out more than just the bubble start in the 20's.... now nasdaq..... stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d19900817,20020817][pb9!b13!b20!h.02,.20!b200!b150!b50!f][vc60][iUb14!La8,17,9!Lh5,5!Le5,10,1!Li10,10!Lp14,3,3!Ll14!Lo15]&pref=G where did the bubble start.....thats the question....was it 1000.....or that straight up area from 700.... 89% loss in nasdaq is around that 700 area.... also notice the major double bottom broke at 1357-1387....and we are basically just testing into that resistance.... anyway.....if the retrace fulfills.....you are right....after the bottom theres some major ramps coming over the next two years.....thats only if the nasdaq stays with the 29-32 bubble..... now the other major bubble was japan....lets see that chart.... finance.yahoo.com^N225&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l you can see a major double bottom like nasdaqs 1357-1387.... ok....after it broke that bottom to a new low....you see a ramp and a retest months apart....not a week like we just saw in nasdaq....then it went higher....but crashed to lower lows..... so if nasdaq morphs into nikkei retrace....we still test the 1190's low likely in october....then ramp.... so theres the past two major bubbles to compare to nasdaq.... if it follows the dow.....we lose 50% over the next 7-months....bottom in the spring 2003....ramp up...retest by oct 2003 to a higher low.....then double again..... if it does nikkei by just testing the 1190 bottom in oct....we ramp from there and can expect a japan scenario to the whole economy with nasdaq going through this crap again for more years to lower lows out to 2004.... in otherwords.....we go through the pain of the last 28 months get a year off with an up....then do it all again..... so with the dow retrace.....we get it over with.....get 3 -monster rallies over the next 4 or 5 years getting nasdaq back to 3000 area.... with the nikkei.....after a retest of the 1190 bottom in october...we ramp back to maybe 2000 over the next year and then head down to 700...... following the dow i think would be much better..... i always said this could morph into a nikkei type deal....and thats why breaking that 1459 top is worth watching......but after seeing that nikkei chart again and seeing what it did after breaking the big double bottom area....it ramped and retested months apart..... i think this october will tell the tale here even better now..... if we break the 1192 bottom.....i think it stays on track of our 29-32 scenario....to a 1000 bottom....ramp back to 1250 to end the year and head for 700 going into march... if the retest is higher and it takes off again.....go to the japan scenario....we grind up for a year....and then we play this whole year over again near a 2000 top and get that 700 bottom later on..... either scenario you look at...1190 is not the bottom....its just whether we get this crap over with now.....or later on down the road..... i hope its now.....

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (5306)	8/17/2002 10:00:11 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30712

Gene, I didn't mean to "slam" you, I simply didn't understand your question. Please take a look at this: home.pacbell.net It's the chart you referred to, with some lovely (ha-ha) additions by moi, (who you will see, is no great artist). My ONLY point is that, to my eyes, "THE BOTTOM" in 31-32-33 was not V-shaped. As to the more complex details of retrace-ology, I leave that to Jeff, Justa, Paul, et al, since I have enough trouble thinking more than a few days ahead in this market. <g/ng>