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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2500)	8/17/2002 7:18:08 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

>> You're not convinced because the news is still bad? Gottfried, Well I was convinced enough to buy 600 sh on Thursday, and hold them overnight. Heck, that's as strong a conviction as you'll see these days. After I was corrected about my concern that AMAT's backlog might drop at the next report, I'm operating on the assumption that the backlog will be reported flat in November (at $3,300 m), but I have no way to have an opinion on the Q after that. We can form an opinion in advance of the company's guidance if we had some knowledge about end user demand for electronic gadgets between now and year end. But can anyone now say much about that ? We get various previews from the companies that report on odd months, or issue mid-Q statements. Dell said their rev was growing, but not the total PC industry. So that is still neutral for AMAT. Intel had indicated their '03 capex for equipment would be flat. So still neutral. From a macro view, total income is growing. And quite likely, electronics take an increasing share of that income. So that is positive. But only mildly so. So, yes I'm not convinced a big jump in revenue is imminent.Eventually it is coming, but not this Q or next. I have no hesitation in buying AMAT at the 15 level. But I think that if it exceeds the 20 level before hard fundamental news is known, then a sell-off is the most likely scenario. Whether it actually occurs, is a matter of luck, or at least not obvious. Did you not sail today ? It's a very nice day in Michigan today. Sarmad