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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richnorth who wrote (88884)	8/19/2002 2:09:05 AM
From: E. Charters	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

I notice a distinct lack of buying into any sort of technical analysis of gold's price ranges on this thread. You would think despite the natural noise of the thread, that there would be all kinds of erudite and and picky holdings-forth on cyclical methods to determine swings. I guess tech or cycle freaks are looked upon inherently as a variety of theoretical loony. But anyone who sees things as effected and affected by the moods and changes of the populace has to admit that things go in and out of style with some kind of regularity, and seem to be affected by the long and short term changes in man's endeavours and shifts of opinion. And the many comments on stuff political and economic that are taken to be factors in price indicate the fundamentalist get the knee jerk vote of confidence very quick indeed. But if other things like war and economies effect and affect prices, what in turn causes them to rise and fall in popularity themselves? Anyone who has seen a graph with a long and constant slope, or seen washboard on a highway, or a washer on spin cycle start to get out of synch, has seen the effect of regular natural cycles. If you have bought a stock, that was the darling of the moment on a bull rise, you followed a trend and did your "technical analysis", albeit in a crude way. There are two schools of thought. One that everything falls into patterns that are governed by the laws of statistics and regardless of causation, as every phenomenon no doubt has, its happenstance follows mappable and predictable regularity. The other school says that flux is due to the chaotic pull of hugely complex multivariate criteria and it is therefore impossible to tell the pattern of natural events in their myriad outcomes. Who is right? Surely at a fine grained scale, the latter complexity theory seems to dominate, but in the flux of centuries we see more ponderous changes that we can follow more easily. As I have said, and many would agree, the larger the mechanism, the slower the change, and the more clear the trend. Gold price and the major economy appears to be a large and ponderous engine, and its price over the years definitely does seem to have long and sure trends. Inexorably it falls and just as inexorably it climbs stubbornly. We have never seen an economy that stayed at the heights for a hundred years. We have never see a boom not followed by a bust. ... Have we? Are there not regular depressions every 50 to 70 years for the past 500 years of paper money? And even before? If you are looking for and at a gold price rise of the past 2 years, and hoping for or calling for a rise for the next 2 to 5 years, then you are doing a form or technical analysis. You are buying into a trend. It could be caused trend, but in all causes there is the assumption of a trend as well. (We can assume everything either happens for unknown reasons or has a cause.. definable easily or not.) If you accept cause then you accept the effect of cause following a law too, therefore it follows that if one could be fine grained enough with cause and law, the pattern of all things could be mapped. Or conversely the pattern could be tracked if minutely dissected, as it would have some underlying regularity. We can say gold is being risen by falling production, which has to happen, or the declining dollar, which is overblown of course. We can say it is a natural economic refuge as well and will come into its own, in shaky times. We can say it rises with the fall of the Dow, only partially seen so far. But for all the causes it also has a pattern. I still say with all the computer use on this thread it is shocking that there aren't more mathematical mavens who can statistically analyse the factors, root causes, sympathetic oscillators, and trends of the gold price, and do a bit of regression of its directions. You would think Elliot wavers and Kondratieff freakos would be haunting this forum with all sorts of long wave, and other TA patterns to prognosticate. I realize it seems abstruse, but something as arcane correlational analysis is as easy as graphing two price trends one above the other after applying a common base and observing for similarities and contrasts. I will admit that stats gets hairy when you want to nail things down to the dollar, and departures from classical correlations are hard to fathom. (Gold used to swing opposite the Dow for 70 years. With the rise of gold derivatives, it has moved with the Dow in part, especially in short term. Now it is beginning to move opposite to the Dow again partly. .. Due to hedge book closings?) EC<:-}