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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (15192)	8/18/2002 6:38:13 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 82660

Tom, I'm not sure what you mean by the squiggly line underneath the gold chart? Are you referring to the red and the blue lines of the stochastic oscillator? If you are, the red line is actually the stochastic and the blue line is its moving average. Yes, "it" can move up from a higher level, indeed, anything can happen. However, I believe the more "natural" a pattern is, the better. If you look at the previous cycles you will see that the big up moves always start from low stochastic levels (although low stochastic levels don't necessarily spawn up-moves). The reason is simply because the more "oversold" a position is, the more likely it is to "overcorrect". Just like a pendulum, the more it swings to one side the more it will swing to the other. When one operates in a market it is vital to realize that there is no "true" price for anything, only opinions. And, for every buyer there is a seller, and vice versa. For this reason, I think it is better to view markets as arguments between bulls and bears rather than between "us" and "them", as goldbugs like to do. Even if such a view is correct, it is generally not helpful to believe the market is always rigged by bad guys. Even bad guys can change their mind and, if they feel the iceberg is turning, they, too, will be quick to change their minds. No position is cast in stone. IMO, the reason POG isn't running up to the heavens right now is because it doesn't suit the producers for that to happen. It is far better for true buyers and sellers that the market is orderly, indeed well-regulated, than whipped into frenzies of mania or depression by crazed speculators fantasizing about the end of the world. Without actually intending to perform this noble function, market stabilization is usually the result of actions by professionals called market makers or jobbers who operate against the prevailing mood --- they sell into buying and buy into selling --- and invariably to the chagrin of the general public who are always attempting to get rich overnight.