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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2531)	8/19/2002 11:58:04 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Cary, are you the only one with that much visibility? >I have said that the peak will be in 2007-2008 when AMAT hits $20B< Gottfried

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (2531)	8/21/2002 10:46:22 AM
From: Pink Minion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

I have said that the peak will be in 2007-2008 when AMAT hits $20B. I haven't heard Morgan mention these sales since the bubble. Is he still predicting this? Let's look at what has to happen for these wild-eyed predictions to come true. Let's say AMAT grows market share from 20-25 percent of cap-ex spending. This means the total market is 80-100 Billion. This requires their customers (peak spending of 25%) to have sales of 320-400 Billion. The last peak from the bubble was 210 Billion (memory). We're at ~144 Billion now which requires more than doubling of sales in 5 years. I might think this is possible except when I look at sales from 1995 ($150B) until now and see negative growth. Tell me we aren't making 10 times as many chips as we did then.