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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Vector1 who wrote (6937)8/19/2002 11:52:15 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52153
 
Iressa as NSLC monotherapy was not that impressive - it clearly helped to some extent, but nothing dramatic. (The monotherapy trials - IDEAL1 and IDEAL2 - didn't have a placebo arm, which makes them that much harder to evaluate.) Hopes were really pinned on combo therapy given that Iressa doesn't have that much in the way of side effects, and mouse xenograft models did show marked synergy with chemotherapy.

Unclear what implications this has for OSIP/DNA, but realistically it has to cast a cloud over them as well.

Here's a good article from TSC:

AstraZeneca's Iressa Failure Could Be Catching

By Adam Feuerstein
Senior Writer
08/19/2002 11:16 AM EDT

AstraZeneca (AZN:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) said Monday that its
experimental cancer drug, Iressa, when given with standard chemotherapy, failed to improve the survival rate of lung cancer patients in two large, late-stage clinical trials.

Iressa is a one of a new class of targeted cancer drugs and is currently under review by the Food and Drug Administration for use by itself in patients with advanced lung cancer. But the poor results released Monday for Iressa used in combination with other cancer-fighting drugs -- first reported by TheStreet.com in May -- raise doubts about the drug's efficacy and chances for FDA approval by the end of the year.

ImClone Systems (IMCL:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Genentech (DNA:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Abgenix (ABGX:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), like AstraZeneca, are developing their own targeted cancer drugs which work by interfering with a protein called epidermal growth factor that regulates growth in cancer cells.

But the Iressa test results, more ominously, raise questions about the potential for any of these experimental therapies, known as epidermal growth factor receptor drugs, or EGFRs, to significantly boost survival rates when used in combination with chemotherapy, according to AstraZeneca executives.

AstraZeneca shares were down $5.43, or 15%, to $31.57 in Monday trading. OSI was off $11.88, or 36%, to $20.90. Its partner, Genentech, was down $3.09, or 9%, to $32.40. ImClone dropped $1.24, or 13%, to $8, while Abgenix was off $1.38, or 14%, to $8.46.

Tough to Swallow

AstraZeneca didn't release actual results Monday but said that two Phase III clinical trials showed that Iressa, taken as a pill, did not provide improvement in survival when the drug was added to a standard chemotherapy treatment. The trials enrolled about 2,000 lung cancer patients.

Last May, however, AstraZeneca presented results that showed Iressa as an effective drug when used by itself, or as monotherapy, in patients with advanced lung cancer who have run out of other medical options. The FDA is currently reviewing the approvability of Iressa used in this way, and the drug was supposed to slated for discussion at an upcoming FDA cancer drug advisory panel meeting in September.

AstraZeneca executives, speaking on a conference call Monday morning, say they have informed the FDA of the latest test results but are hopeful that the results won't affect the current review process. However, the executives could not guarantee it, raising the possibility that Iressa would be yanked off the agenda of the September advisory panel meeting.

In March, TheStreet.com was first to report that results from the Phase III Iressa combination trials were pulled from the 2002 annual meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. In May, as the Iressa monotherapy results were reported at the ASCO meeting, TheStreet.com reported that the company was aware that results from the Phase III combination trials were disappointing, showing some survival benefit but not enough to meet the clinical goal of the studies.

Monday's results were actually worse. The use of Iressa resulted in no survival benefit whatsoever, compared with that of standard chemotherapy treatments, according to AstraZeneca executives. Moreover, the poor results were not a result of an underpowered study.

"It doesn't matter if we would have had 50,000 patients [in the studies] , the results would have been the same," said AstraZeneca CEO Tom McKillop.

Additional analysis must be completed, but McKillop said the company's scientists believe that Iressa does not likely work synergistically with other chemotherapy drugs, as previously thought. In fact, it's his belief that none of the so-called EGFR drugs will prove to work this way, although he has no data to support that, he added.

Iressa is one of AstraZeneca's most highly anticipated new drugs, which are supposed to help the pharmaceutical firm make up for the lost sales due to upcoming generic competition for its heartburn medicine, Prilosec. Iressa's success became even more important recently when the company announced a delay in the launch of its new cholesterol drug, Crestor. Iressa is already approved in Japan as a monotherapy, but has not yet been submitted to European drug regulators.

Despite Monday's disappointing results, McKillop said he believes Iressa is still an important and useful drug that is clearly effective when used as monotherapy. "A lot of patients are getting real benefits from Iressa. We believe Iressa will be a successful product."



To: Vector1 who wrote (6937)8/20/2002 3:26:45 AM
From: Icebrg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
Some comments from Btechnews on the Iressa results.

Ice

DISAPPOINTING IRESSA RESULTS

Yesterday AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) announced that Iressa plus platinum-based chemotherapy did not increase survival rates of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The Iressa results, coming after the well-publicized problems with ImClone (NASDAQ: IMCL) and Bristol-Myers Squibb's NYSE: BMY) epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor Erbitux, raised concerns on Wall Street about the effectiveness of other EGFR inhibitors such as OSI (NASDAQ: OSIP), Roche (Swiss: ROG), and Genentech's (NYSE: DNA) Tarceva as well as Abgenix (NASDAQ: ABGX) and Amgen's (NASDAQ: AMGN) ABX-EGF. While it would be nice to be able to make a clear statement that these results either significantly lessen the probability of the entire class of EGFR inhibitors being approved or that Iressa's results have no relevance to Tarceva or ABX-EGF, the story is much more complicated.

The science underlying EGFR inhibitors is very strong. The problems with the individual drugs in this class highlight the difficulty of translating scientific advances into actual drugs. In addition, cancer is an extremely complex set of diseases; only rarely is a drug clearly effective in treating cancer, as was the case with Novartis's (NYSE: NVS) Gleevec. The more usual scenario is that a new drug will demonstrate enough of a survival advantage in certain, specific situations to be approved. As the medical community learns more about the drug and how to utilize it in a comprehensive treatment protocol, the drug expands into wider use. Therefore, results in which a class of drugs shows promise in some scenarios but then fails to demonstrate efficacy in others is the norm. In addition, factors such as trial design, specific molecule design, and drug-drug interactions in combination therapy can have a large impact on trial results for a given drug. Therefore, making judgments about the entire class of EGFR inhibitors is difficult based on the limited information that has been released by AstraZeneca.

Having said that, AstraZeneca's statements were certainly negative for Iressa. As AstraZeneca stated in its press release and conference call, the trials were well designed. The company's announcement concerned the first substantive clinical survival endpoint data generated by Iressa trials. Previous results, superficially more positive, have demonstrated effects only on surrogate or palliative endpoints. Surrogate endpoint data in anti-cancer agent trials rely on measurements of tumor shrinkage, response rates, and so forth rather than clinical endpoints such as survival, disease-free survival, or progression-free survival. Therapeutic benefit in terms of surrogate endpoints, though fine for the typical phase II-III transition, is only on rare occasion enough for FDA drug approval. Palliative endpoints rely on measurements of symptomatic relief leading to comfort as well as freedom from pain and distress.

As we stated in our May 28th report, Iressa's tumor response data from its previous phase II trials, which AstraZeneca has used to file for U.S. regulatory approval, are not strong enough to support a typical cancer drug' s approval. However, Iressa did demonstrate sufficient palliative results - i.e. relief of shortness of breath, coughing, and chest tightness - to warrant FDA consideration in terminal NSCLC. In this conservative FDA environment, much will rest on the recommendation of the oncologic drug advisory committee (ODAC), which meets on September 24.

AstraZeneca indicated today that it will not abandon this application because of the disappointing phase III data. However, approval based on palliative effects in a relative small phase II trial was already risky. The preliminary phase III results of Iressa in combination with chemotherapy further decrease the odds of approval in 2002. At the very least, the FDA will likely want to examine more substantive phase III results and may require additional trials of Iressa.

How Iressa's disappointing results impact assessments of other EGFR inhibitors is an important question. The results could be specific to Iressa, specific to small molecule EGFR inhibitors such as Tarceva but not antibodies like Erbitux and ABX-EGF, or general for all EGFR inhibitors in certain clinical scenarios such as EGFR inhibitors in combination with platinum-based chemotherapy.

Iressa's results increase the probability that Tarceva monotherapy will be significantly superior to Iressa therapy. OSI, Roche, and Genentech are conducting high-powered phase III trials with both Tarceva alone and in combination with chemotherapy in NSCLC patients. Well-designed phase II trials have already demonstrated survival advantages of Tarceva monotherapy in chemo-refractory NSCLC patients. 40% of recipients were alive at 12 months (compared to a historical chemotherapy control of on the order of 25-35%). Other evidence of significant survival advantages was observed, and is likely to be confirmed in higher-powered studies.

Even if Tarceva, like Iressa, does not increase the benefits of chemotherapy, survival advantages with Tarceva alone would remain important. The only shortcoming of the Tarceva data to date is a lack of substantive quality-of-life and symptomatic information. Confirming phase II efficacy in NSCLC would set up more secure off-label use in head and neck cancer (currently in phase II study) and ovarian cancer (currently in phase II study). Even given the concern that Iressa results bode poorly for Tarceva, the agent continues to have above average odds of FDA approval. Yesterday's 57% sell-off of OSI shares overestimates the risk associated with investment in the company based upon this drug.

Erbitux has recently begun higher-powered phase III trials that will address the concerns of the FDA coming after its December "Refuse To File" letter and further concerns relating to data presented in May. Erbitux has a slightly lower than average chance of being approved by the FDA compared to other drugs in phase III trials, and will not be approved before 2005 at best. The phase III Iressa results do not significantly impact our view of Erbitux's odds of approval.

ABX-EGF has not generated enough clinical data thus far to warrant attempts to translate Iressa's disappointing results into predictions of ABX-EGF's probability of success. However, Abgenix's investment thesis is not based on the success of any one of its current pipeline drugs. Rather, it is based on an assessment that Abgenix will be successful in using its drug development platform to generate a robust clinical pipeline and its ability to efficiently sort through this pipeline and invest in the drug candidates that are most likely to be successful.

btechnews.com