SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2543)8/19/2002 1:42:26 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25522
 
From RTS of the Wennerstrom thread:

Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Analysis
Replies: 4938
View Next 10 Messages | Previous | Next

To:Return to Sender who wrote (4937)
From: Return to Sender Monday, Aug 19, 2002 1:36 PM
Respond to of 4938

From Briefing.com: 12:55PM Soundview on Semis : In pre-open note, firm suggests to buy Applied Materials (AMAT 15.35 +0.65), Novellus Systems (NVLS 30.63 +1.48), or Lam Research (LRCX 14.85 +0.61), rather than KLA-Tencor (KLAC 40.40 +1.32) since KLAC's shares have depreciated by only 18% over past yr vs. AMAT's 31%, NVLS's 40%, and LRCX's 45%. Partly due to placement in unusually stable segment of very volatile industry, KLAC almost always trades at justifiable premium valuation to its competitors. However, current premium is unusually extreme; has been this high only three times in past 10 yrs, all of which signaled periods of poor performance for stock relative to group. If semi capital equipment rebounds in coming months as firm expects, KLAC should underperform peer group. Should semis decline or plateau, firm thinks KLAC has more downside potential; thinks AMAT, NVLS, and LRCX offer compelling risk/reward.
finance.yahoo.com^SOXX+ALTR+AMAT+AMD+BRCM+DELL+I...



To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (2543)8/19/2002 2:22:23 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Respond to of 25522
 
Brian,

You are correct, it is difficult to forecast precisely. The saving grace is that the farther out one looks, the less precision is required. It is more important to correctly predict the "shape" of things to come. For example, I did not know that semi-equips' orders would be flat at the bottom for 11 months, but I "knew" it would be much longer than the usual "V" bottoms.