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To: AllansAlias who wrote (50665)8/19/2002 1:27:07 PM
From: byhiselo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
<<odd that we have not seen a nice high tick yet in tech>>

watching same and would think we need 2-3 days +1000 on the Naz before considering a top...

also from realmoney.com this morn:

Dan Fitzpatrick
Put-Call Ratio
8/19/02 11:35 AM ET

Jim, there is something else behind this rally, and its option expiration related. The dollar-weighted put-call ratio on the $SPX was as high as 17 this morning. That indicated a massive imbalance of put options in market maker's books, and will likely take several days for them to work off. Such a high dollar-weighted put-call ratio is very contrarian -- With such a high open interest in put options, who is left to commit money to the short side.
I spoke with Fari Hamzei of HamzeiAnalytics.com, just prior to posting this, and he said that the ratio is already down to 10.5. Still tremendously bullish, but not as obscenely overweighted as 17.

I noticed over the weekend that both the $NDX and the $SPX closed at their 50-day moving averages. In fact, I had written in my trading diary to expect a down-Monday as traders opened new short positions, anticipating a bounce off that moving average. Guess they were all thinking the same thing at the same time, and the crowd is rarely right at turning points.



To: AllansAlias who wrote (50665)8/19/2002 1:27:16 PM
From: ajtj99  Respond to of 209892
 
We may hit 1400 COMP, 951 SPX, and 9000 Dow simultaneously and turn back. The lure of round numbers and a neckline appears too compelling right now to resist.

USD topped this AM around 11:00AM, which would indicate this action here on the indices could be a rounded top before a pullback.

It has been a long time since I've seen action like this. No volume at all.