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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1391)	8/20/2002 10:54:18 AM
From: Frederick Langford	Respond to of 1854

CSFB on Semi Equip Book-Bill Ratio: Semiconductor Equipment - SCE July Book-to-Bill # Book-to-Bill downward trend to begin Book-to-Bill a Lagging Indicator. SEMI reports July Book to Bill Tuesday after the close at 3 PM PST. Book to bill is a "best guess" science complicated by a 3 month moving average and inconsistent company reporting of SAB 101 revenue/shipment data. With AMAT already reporting 26% sequential revenue growth and 4% growth in net orders, we do not expect event to generate significant news. B:Bill should begin falling in-line as bookings momentum wanes. Estimate B:B of 1.11 to 1.19 with a single point estimate of 1.15, down from 1.28 in June. We expect bookings to be down 3% sequentially, billings up 8%. Results will be helped by AMAT results, which were up 6% seq., but not yet fully reflect the 10-15% bookings decline we believe SCE is now facing. Bookings Rebound Hinges on September Demand Inflection. In our opinion, the difference between a one-quarter pause and a three quarter downturn in bookings is dependent on seasonal sell-through. If sellthrough is strong, we anticipate orders stabilizing by December. Near-term bookings weakness should continue to carry book-to-bill lower over the next few months until demand visibility is clearer.

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1391)	8/20/2002 2:01:33 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1854

Time Projection SPX has a 30 min TP due at 2:00 est Due to fork placements and this TP...... SPX will either close the upper gap or break the 935± area and down hard. Looking for ya gap close Hi OJ

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1391)	8/20/2002 7:48:43 PM
From: Frederick Langford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1854

SEMI's July book-to-bill hits 1.26 in weak market By Semiconductor Business News URL: siliconstrategies.com SAN JOSE -- North American-based manufacturers of chip equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 1.16 for the month of July, down from 1.26 in June, according to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade association here today. A book-to-bill of 1.16 means that $116 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month, according to SEMI of San Jose. The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. SEMI's figures are markedly different than the book-to-bill from VLSI Research Inc. The worldwide book-to-bill ratio for semiconductor equipment fell to its lowest level in six months, from a healthy 1.15 in June, to a mere 0.77 for July, according to new figures from VLSI Research of San Jose (see Aug. 19 story ). SEMI, which tracks North American-based suppliers only, shows a completely different picture. The three-month average of worldwide bookings in July 2002 was $1.15 billion, according to SEMI. The bookings figure is 2% below the revised June 2002 level of $1.17 billion, but 50% above the $769 million in orders posted in July 2001, it said. The three-month average of worldwide billings in July 2002 was $995 million. The billings figure is 7% above the revised June 2002 level of $927 million, but 17% below the July 2001 billings level of $1.19 billion. "The July bookings data likely reflects renewed questions about the robustness of the economic recovery and the prospects for the consumption of electronic goods," said Dan Tracy, director of industry research and statistics for SEMI, in a statement. "The data is consistent with recent announcements of reduced capital spending plans by some global chipmakers and supports the consensus of industry analysts projecting market recovery in 2003," he said.