Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (145887)	8/20/2002 9:42:12 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>ripping mkt share away from competitors in a mkt sector that right now stinks. That's spot on, Victor. Except that it will ramp again. Just like the railroads in the 1800's. 1996-2000 has been just the start. Four years is nothing in an age, especially when equipment has a three-year life!

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (145887)	8/20/2002 9:47:19 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

...but the capacity argument is old, new economy baloney. Are you suggesting that the term "capacity" no longer means "the potential... for accommodating" or "the maximum amount or number that can be contained or accommodated"? Do you mean that existing communications infrastructure is not constrained in its capacity? Now what is baloney? Vic, I'm not predicting that CAPEX is going to resume its growth in any significant way at any particular time - just that existing capacity will be absorbed at some point and between the need for new capacity and the need to replace old equipment at some point, you will see a rebound in spending on communications equipment. It's not a matter of "bubblenomics" - it's basic cyclical economics of capital intensive industries and their suppliers. Now, the million dollar questions are how fast is that absorption really running (we see figures, but they're guesses and they keep changing) and when will carriers have to resume spending? Not soon enough for some, I expect. There's probably lots of time to contemplate companies and valuations and watch for signs that the rebound is finally coming rather than hoping that it comes soon. capex spending for 2003 is going to drop again. We know that much. You mean, you guess that much. BTW, I hope that's your assumption only for certain industries like communications equipment (and I'm not sure you'd be correct even there) and not for industry generally. If you are thinking macro, what is the basis?