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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (145899)	8/20/2002 10:25:51 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Victor, remember that stats from 2001 were polluted by fraudulent input. We had the likes of Global Crossing and Worldcom swapping bandwidth and putting it on the ledger wherever it would give their executive options the most juice. When Worldcom (or Global, or Williams) said their CAPEX would be a certain number, Wall street dutifully entered that figure in their models (as did every telecom equipment vendor, with implications in R&D and headcount) while the numbers were total fiction. Trust broke down and the system collapsed. None of that had to do with end demand, which chugged along at its (in retrospect) 100% annual growth rate. All this is being rationalized now.

To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (145899)	8/20/2002 10:39:54 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 164684

What is this? "I wanna be like GST" night? Are there only two options - Bill's view and yours? That's called "false dilemma," Vic. My point was that he is right that capacity is still being absorbed at a fairly rapid pace, in spite of the downturn in techland, and that you are wrong if you think capacity absorption doesn't matter, which was your argument. That's just bubblethink in reverse. But that doesn't make CSCO a buy now or make Bill's other arguments for CSCO correct. Is it OK with you if I don't take his side on every point? As for the "when?", I've seen forecasts ranging from soon to never, but I tend to toss out the extremes (the wishful thinking and the alarmists), so next summer seems to me like as good a guess (analysts call them forecasts) as any. But it's still just a guess so I don't see any reason to hurry into the stocks, especially when there are healthier industries at lower valuations. Now, should I go ahead and post your reply? Here, you can copy and paste: "What is your point? Do you have a point? You just want to pick nits - that's what you do, you... you... nitpicking CFO."