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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Vector1 who wrote (9353)8/21/2002 6:15:37 PM
From: scott_jiminez  Respond to of 9719
 
Excellent justification, Vector.

But what I find incredibly disturbing is that I have to come back with the following, incredibly obvious, response: as I stated earlier (which Cytokine agreed with), you only cover 25% of the investing game. Now provide the other 75%: an equally lengthy tome on all the reasons you would SELL OSIP. These might include, in addition to the failure of any the assumptions you've made regarding OSIP's pipeline, a precise, price-specific selling point. For example, if OSIP goes to, say, $50, by the end of 2003, roughly a 3-bagger from here, even before the final verdict is in for potential Tarceva indications, would you not sell based solely on the idea of an amazing 200% return in 15 months?

If you have ANY hesitation in answering that question, you've not learned a dang thing, imo, from the disintegration over the past 2 years of the portfolio you control.



To: Vector1 who wrote (9353)8/22/2002 1:17:25 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9719
 
V1, at current valuations, i'd put OSIP's value at 6x peak sales. However OSIp has to share with DNA so this adds up to 1.5B$ at 500M$ sales. I think 500M$ are quite optimistic, though. If EGFR drugs works in monotherapy, then Iressa has a lead over OSIP's drug and The market won't be that big and Iressa might take a bulk of it plus we have ABGX and IMCL competing. Looks like a pretty crowded field to me.