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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17686)	8/21/2002 6:10:32 PM
From: isopatch	Respond to of 36161

Frank. This is 3rd patch rally in 9 mo. for me. #1 was from the wk before XMAS through 1st wk of Jan. Was fortunate to catch the one good cold snap in the lower 48 for some nice gains. Tried to reload in mid-Jan. And only a very quick and nimble exit got me out of everything (with tiny net gain for a few days hold) just before the roof fell in, particularly for the NG stocks, in late Jan. However, what was much more important was the fact that <winter capitulation> selloff set up and excellent bottom in February to buy aggressively. So, rally #2 was a very profitable run from late Feb through April. Patch rally #3 really got rolling 1-2 weeks ago, for me. ======================================================== Do my best to miss the bottom every time.<g> Am risk averse enough to consider the 1st 10% up in a multi-week rally to be a small price to pay for a confirmed tradable bottom. Most folks are way to impatient to do that. And you constantly see example after example on many web threads where the resultant knife catching ends with huge losses, sooner or later. Not that interested in forecasting a specific target number for XNG or OSX as to how high we are likely to go. My approach is to identify a tradable rally early and then ride the uptrend till it looks like a top has been made. More than a buck paper gain in CRK so far - from 6.10 entry - and see more to come there, AWA with other patch long positions. Some of them don't have enough daily volume for me to be comfortable mentioning them on a public web board. Most of my other favs are well know here from earlier posts last year and in February/March. Best regards, Isopatch