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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dayuhan who wrote (39334)	8/21/2002 10:10:52 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Do you really believe that regime change in Iraq would have a significant impact on Al Qaeda's ability to attack the US? Yes, I do. Al Qaeda depends on sponsorship and recruitment. The Islamist militant organizations act as the forward attack units of the radical Arab regimes, allowing them to attack targets, such as the US and Israel, that they do not have the strength to attack directly. To date, this has been a cost-free option for them. Heads I win; tails, those nasty terrorists have nothing to do with me, nothing at all. Make it clear to the Arab world that this option now has significant, perhaps even fatal, costs for the regime that tries it, and state sponsorship will certain become much less overt. It will also cut out one of the main pillars of Islamic recruitment -- namely, that the US is soft and decadent and only needs a good push to fall over. They believe this! Let us remind the Arab world of a few realities not contained in their rhetoric. If, on top of that, we also manage to leave an improved governance in Iraq (and Saddam's regime is so hideous it would be hard not to improve it), it will make the Islamists look even more like dopes. I'll admit that Iran, Syria and especially Saudi Arabia might make better candidates for this treatment, but we all know the situation which makes us choose Iraq first. Once we have Iraq, I do think a respectful quiet will descend on Syria, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, since nobody will want to volunteer to be next. Not permanently, but for a few years. Except maybe Syria; boy Assad seems stupid enough for anything and has been acting as if he alone were immune to attack. Still, I expect it will be Israel who cleans his clock. Now, this doesn't mean that the alligators won't be biting as hard as they can, short-term. But draining the swamp is our only hope in the long run.