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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Short Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (235)	8/22/2002 2:26:37 AM
From: tuck	Respond to of 897

Ralf, That's a good thought and I've updated the watch list accordingly (as well as dropping some no longer suitable for shorting). ALKS' Risperdal problem smacks of SEPR's problem with Soltara, and yet ALKS has snapped back more when maybe they deserve not to. Inhaled insulin is looking high risk, particularly since they use a dry formulation as did INHL (there might be hope for ARDM and their liquid formulation, but perhaps the issue is particle size, not what phase it's in, BWDIK?). And the naltrexone project has also been characterized as high risk by better minds than mine. So what's left? Have they a sales force, or is the burn for something else? Worth looking into a little more deeply, thanks! Cheers, Tuck

To: Spekulatius who wrote (235)	8/22/2002 10:24:29 AM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 897

The reason for ALKS' rebound is approval in UK and Germany. Though that is expected to narrow losses by only six cents to 94 cents. Investment bankers are looking to establish a relationship with ALKS (Leerink & Swann has publicly said so). My guess is that a few more non US approvals will come & the price will top out when they choose that moment to float an offering. No doubt they'll try to buy back some of the convertible debt with it, but perhaps that depends on the maturity, which I haven't looked at, and the interest rate thereon. If higher than its cost of capital, they'd go for it. I would think that would be the time to short it. Thoughts? Cheers, Tuck