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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Davies who wrote (38075)	8/22/2002 1:05:25 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68005

[madtrader] Wed Aug 21, 5:05pm PDT Volume I am going to eat what I said yesterday about the market's volume. Although volume has been on the thin side of late, there is a consistant theme going on. On down days, volume has indeed been shrinking, and on up days, like today, they have been going up. The advance/decline ratio has held up nicely as well. Even some names I thought as over-extended short term are getting the correction. All signs of a fairly healthy market. IBD reported that investor intelligence sentiment survey showing bears are still on top, for the 3rd month in a row now. This is a bonus as well. Suggesting skepticism (me included) while the market advances. IBD also suggested there is a historical parallel in this kind of low volume advance. That was back in 1932, after the DOW got crushed for the 3rd year and hitting a low of 41 in July. So I went back and looked at the chart during those periods. Indeed, the market seems to have made a low in middle of June that year. It had multiple big volume days on advanceds, but in early July, the market under-cut the June lows. By late July, volume rose to nearly double to triple the average level (try to imagine NYSE or NASDAQ doing 5 billion shares a day) as the market rocketed nearly 80% in 3 months. I am afraid I am not seeing quite the same parallel with regards to the DOW this time around. Perhaps the more comparable scenario would be for NASDAQ. none. [madtrader] Wed Aug 21, 11:39am PDT IBM This one is over-extended short term. Should have more room on the downside, I am going for some puts here. buy to open IBM Sept 80 puts. Register for our newsletter [madtrader] Wed Aug 21, 11:29am PDT QQQ Selling my QQQ longs and switching into shorts. sold QQQ, short QQQ. [madtrader] Wed Aug 21, 7:54am PDT HRB Not smelling right on this one. It did breakout to a new 52 week high but quickly reversed. Over-extended short term. rumordude.com