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To: JRI who wrote (50947)	8/22/2002 9:32:58 AM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

<<Also, got any thoughts about his point: Only 3 times in last 2 years....has MACD converged w/stochastics (as in Naz right now)...each time, leading to 40% down.... >> My only thought on this (and save the flames everyone) is that I'm wondering how often this convergence showed up during the bull market? Seriously, I'm not arguing we're in a big bull here, but I wonder if it's not a small secular bull within the bear? If so, all the carefully calibrated TA tools that have worked well for the last. . .uh. . . two years, will need some fine tuning, much as all the TA that worked before (ARMS signal, anyone?) has not worked as well during the bear. We'll clearly know the answer to this particular set of readings within a short period of time, and I'm NOT making a prediction with the above. . . just raising a red flag, so to speak. the freep

To: JRI who wrote (50947)	8/22/2002 9:33:47 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

That link points me to Velo's main page. What supposed wedges are you referring to?

To: JRI who wrote (50947)	8/22/2002 10:33:35 AM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

JRI, that's an interesting convergence and I'm glad he had the sharp eye to make that observation, but if you note that the MACD is barely above zero rather than way into overbought (way into the positive numbers) then it makes you wonder. Take a look at the naz weekly over a longer time period for additional perspective. stockcharts.com[l,a]waclyyay[df][pc8!b5][vc60][iLp14,3,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G There will almost always be an indicator (last week the P/C was a hot topic) or a set of indicators (velo's observation) or a chart pattern or fib retracements (phoenix' observations) that point in one direction or another. But although velo says this points to down, the question is "when?" Tomorrow? Next week? After Labor Day? In his conclusion for today, the data is so confusing that he didn't make a call for today, which was a smart decision IMO considering yesterday's whipsaws. That decision to not make a call for today supports marginmike's comment about staying in the weeds as maybe the best choice, and it echoes my comment yesterday that perhaps that's what the smart money may be doing as evidenced by the low volume. If you're swing trading rather than catching few minute wiggles, rather than pre-emptively trying to catch the top I think it's best to wait for a clear roll on the dailies and then go short There are so many weird things going on fundamentally that it's not funny: witness the Dow's 200 point opening gap on 8/6 supposedly because of the "strengething dollar" or the rally on 8/8 because of a "rate cut anticipation" or the rally last week supposedly because of "reallocation from bonds into stocks." Next week we have end-of-month MF window dressing that could give a little more fuel to the rally.