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To: alburk who wrote (1044)	8/22/2002 3:55:44 PM
From: I_C_Deadpeople	Respond to of 5423

"IMHO there was a fundamental shift in corporate dividend philosophy away from paying dividends"... I think that in fact is his contention. I read somewhere years ago , some old investment writer who basically said something like "at the height of a bull market investors do not care about dividends but only share price appreciation but at the lowest point of a bear market they only care about how much the dividend is". I could also be wrong but the "shift in philosophy" you mention is in fact part of the normal bull market itself. The fact is, right now many companies have little or no cash and what they do have they have foolishly spent buying back there own stock. When the dividend yield was high in the mid 1930's it not only was because stock prices were low. It was also because companies actually paid dividends and investors demanded them. Paying a healthy dividend implies cash flow growth and sound management. Once the herd figures this out, those that are left in the market will once again demand dividends. The impact on Gold in a deflationary environment is certainly up for debate. I think most gold bugs believe the POG is more tied to financial uncertainty than inflation or deflation. Regardless, I suspect we will all know the answers in a few short years.

To: alburk who wrote (1044)	8/22/2002 5:41:12 PM
From: tyc:>	Respond to of 5423

>>he needs to assess corporate dividend paying ABILITY I agree with you. It is my understanding that, almost by definition, the amount of dividends that a corporation COULD pay is its "free cash flow". And that therefore a corporation's value is the sum of its future cash flows, discounted. From the shareholder's point of view, the FCF should be paid out as dividends only if the company cannot utilise them to provide a higher yield than the shareholder can get for himself elsewhere. I wonder if this view is generally accepted ?

To: alburk who wrote (1044)	8/22/2002 7:54:38 PM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Hi Andrew: >>Puplava must believe that the US will avoid deflation at all cost. It seems that the prospects for deflation and its impact on Gold are avoided by Gold Bugs.<< Very interesting comment...I have been thinking about this for quite some time..and plan to address it over the weekend. The last time I put out a long-winded post on AU was May 26...still stand behind 80% of what was said...many new beliefs since then as well: Message 17517930

To: alburk who wrote (1044)	8/23/2002 8:29:07 AM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Deflation scenario PoG implications avoided by goldbugs? NOT THIS ONE! I'm of the old school that deflation is the biggest and bestest and baddest indicator for a sustainable BULLISH gold move. That puts me in the BillWolman camp, John Murphy camp, R.E. McMaster Camp, the Aden camp and a , McAvity camp, the Ken Gammage camp plus a few others heavyweights on the other end of Prechter's playground teeter-totter. Bob Prechter is missing the boat on his gold forecast , IMCO, just like he's missed the boat on the DJIA rally stopping call at the "looooooOOOOOOoooofty level of DOW 3500" some dozen years ago. A serious review of monetary deflation history charting overlaid onto a similar X/Y axes chart of GOLD charting...--arithmetic not log-- will show any and all skeptics just how friendly genuine and sustained deflation is to PoG!!!! Carry on, Andy, now that I've disabused you of your "all gold bugs" assumptive error... g_t