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To: AllansAlias who wrote (51051)	8/23/2002 12:31:47 AM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 209892

A Pullback and Modest Bounce On The Daily 50 SMA Would produce a red stick for the day, but still leave the weekly green. It would provide the bears with encouragement to open new short positions, while still leaving the bulls feeling like everything is "bullish". From an elliot perspective I think it would be the 4 down within the larger c up of this a b c correction off the July low. Meaning that we would probably finish the 5 up of c next week. Mostly on the fuel of the new short positions created tomorrow. (A complete discussion of the wave structure of this correction is in that prior post of mine which you didn't read because it did not have pictures. <gg> If I do say so myself it is an excellent illustration of the fact that even a blind squirrel gets a nut twice a day.)

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51051)	8/23/2002 12:48:53 AM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 209892

Well, I have an e-wave question regarding what we're seeing. If the rally off the Sept. lows was an "A", and the subsequent decline into July a "B", could a "C" be a .382 Fib of the "A"? From what I've seen here, I believe a .618 would probably be more favored in theory, but I'm trying to get the order of preference from an e-wave perspective. COMP 711 points was the rally off the Sept. lows. 1463 (nominally 1459) would get us to .382 of that, and the time would be about the first week of Sept. if the time was .382 also. I'm using the COMP as the NDX high was earlier and the COMP seemed to fit better with what we're seeing.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51051)	8/23/2002 12:59:21 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 209892

AA, Thanks for the response! The reason for the question is that I seem to see folks reflecting this as an a-b-c with an ending here. As a newbie to EW I've got a real problem with that view. The Book (page 81) indicates that C waves "unfold in five waves." I see too many pretty pictures that show a 3 wave C. It is also noted in the Book (page 21) that "wave 3 is never the shortest wave." So, if wave one started 7/24 at the 7533 low, wave 1 seemed to end at the 7/30 8762 high, wave 2 was at the 8/5 8031 low, wave 3 was at the 8797 high, and wave 4 was at the 8/14 low of 8353, then wave 1 was 1229 points and wave 3 was 766 points. If wave 3 is not to be the shortest wave, then wave 5 cannot exceed 9119, which is the wave 4 low of 8353 plus the 766 points of wave 3. I'm trying to look at this as a newbie academic exercise. It would seem to me, as close as we are, that if we exceed 9119, then the wave 3 changes into a five wave pattern (now possibly a c) suggesting a smaller wave 4 and then another wave 5 to finish the pattern (if a c). Since we have already powered past the 50% retracement of the 5/17 high of 10353 to the 7/24 low of 7533, this has us looking at a .618 retracement target of 9276. That sure seems like a number from a chart chaser perspective that would get the bulls all lathered up! Just a View from the Swamp Berney

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51051)	8/23/2002 1:21:38 AM
From: Gut Trader	Respond to of 209892

OT/HCH- short Canada on a downtick--ehhh? <g> finance.yahoo.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51051)	8/23/2002 1:38:04 AM
From: Gut Trader	Respond to of 209892

Scenario generally is Rally toward late August..dropping vix..talking heads yepping about train leaving station.. Japanese semiannual tax selling inducing hiccups..Labor day rally,,Ted David yelling Buy Roshahana sell Yom Kippur(Sept 6-16). Then comes the ritual October virginal Sacrifice. Oh yeaah almost forgot about Sept 11 anniversary. Last Year started Legging into index puts first week of September thinkin I had time to pile on. GT@APutforAllSeasons.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51051)	8/23/2002 9:34:20 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Very interesting here....will some yesterday longs feel trapped here, and dump (we get under 1400, and some long stops should get hit), or will bears use this gap down as an opportunity to cover, and panic it back up to fill gap.. Semi weakness again...bigtime