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To: dannobee who wrote (99)8/27/2002 3:53:33 PM
From: LPS5  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2534
 
Wanted for Outsider Trading
by James Ostrowski
August 26, 2002

Those who lost their laptops buying overpriced stocks are looking for scapegoats. The self-made delusionaires are hunting for self-made millionaires. They are no better at picking the villains of the stock market bubble burst than they were at picking stocks.

Accordingly, one of our most productive citizens is being targeted for destruction by our most unproductive entity, the federal government, whose principals are always whoring after the votes of the depraved. So I decided to find out what Martha Stewart's legal exposure was.

Or so I thought. After all, I am a lawyer and litigator who studied securities law in school, and I am pretty good at computer research. Nevertheless, it took me many hours to reach a conclusion, only to find that I had been overruled by the Supreme Court. The nerve. To understand the law of insider trading, you have to be a real insider. Yet, ignorance of the law is no excuse (unless you are a judge).

Stewart allegedly sold about 4,000 shares of ImClone stock based on insider information from Chairman Samuel Waksal that the FDA was about to reject its application to market a new anti-carcinogen drug Erbitux. Stewart entirely denies the charges and states that the shares were sold pursuant to pre-existing instructions. Waksal has since been indicted for insider trading for tipping off family members, but not Stewart, about the imminent FDA action.

The United States Code legalizes naturally criminal behavior by the state and its agents while criminalizing naturally lawful behavior by citizens. Nevertheless, the federales' army can take Stewart’s bodyguards, so I repaired to the United States Code, that inscrutable and unscrupulous repository of numerous victimless (nonexistent) crime laws.

Using secondary sources, I quickly found the relevant statute, though it might take a non-lawyer hours to do the same. The law, 15 U. S. C. Section 78j, is entitled "Manipulative and deceptive devices" and is part of a chapter entitled "Securities Exchanges." It states:

"It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, by the use of any means or instrumentality of interstate commerce or of the mails, or of any facility of any national securities exchange – . . . (b) To use or employ, in connection with the purchase or sale of any security . . . any manipulative or deceptive device or contrivance in contravention of such rules and regulations as the Commission may prescribe as necessary or appropriate in the public interest or for the protection of investors."

That's it. That’s your insider trading statute. That's why they're hunting Martha, Inc. When I read that statute, I knew it was going to be a long night. As Justice Clarence Thomas asked, "that's rather unusual, for a criminal statute to be that open-ended, isn’t it?" As Thomas implied, I saw that Congress had improperly delegated its constitutionally based lawmaking powers to another agency, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Is the SEC part of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch of government? Let's let it speak for itself. The SEC describes its functions as follows (my comments are in parentheses):

(a) interpret federal securities laws (judicial)
(b) amend existing rules (legislative)
(c) propose new rules to address changing market conditions (legislative);
(d) enforce rules and laws (executive).

Thus, the SEC combines legislative, executive, and judicial power, precisely the result the framers of the Constitution sought to avoid because of a minor problem called tyranny. FDR was not about to let the Constitution get in the way of a progressive state that would micromanage the affairs of the pathetically stupid people (stupid enough to vote for FDR four times). The SEC would be run by five commissioners, who would be appointed by the president, who was elected by the same stupid people the SEC is to protect from bamboozlers.

The Supreme Court has refused to destroy the SEC and other bureaucracies on the grounds of improper delegation of powers, oblivious to whether the Constitution is destroyed in the process. See, e.g., American Light & Power Co. v. SEC, 329 U.S. 90 (1946). As my wily law Professor Henry Mark Holzer told his administrative law classes: "Agencies do agency business." I wish I could remember who defined a federal judge as "a lawyer whose best friend was a senator."

Off I go to the SEC website to read its interpretation of the statute that could land Martha in jail. Sorry, no regs there. No matter. I find them elsewhere on the Web. Rule 10b-5 states:

"It shall be unlawful for any person, directly or indirectly, by the use of any means or instrumentality of interstate commerce, or of the mails or of any facility of any national securities exchange, (a) To employ any device, scheme, or artifice to defraud, (b) To make any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact necessary in order to make the statements made, in the light of the circumstances under which they were made, not misleading, or (c) To engage in any act, practice, or course of business which operates or would operate as a fraud or deceit upon any person, in connection with the purchase or sale of any security."

Rule 10b5-1, enacted in 2000 and entitled "Trading on the Basis of Material Nonpublic Information in Insider Trading Cases," purports to define insider trading. It uses 751 words to do so. The basic definition is buying or selling securities "on the basis of material nonpublic information about that security or issuer, in breach of a duty of trust or confidence that is owed directly, indirectly, or derivatively, to the issuer of that security or the shareholders of that issuer, or to any other person who is the source of the material nonpublic information." The regulation defines "on the basis of" as including all instances in which "the person making the purchase or sale was aware of the material nonpublic information when the person made the purchase or sale."

One wonders why the drafters didn’t simply use "awareness" rather than "on the basis of" as part of the original definition. This is one of many wonders in the wonderful world of insider trading law. This stipulation certainly makes the law much harsher and leads immediately to absurd consequences. For example, if a corporate executive buys his own stock in the face of nonpublic bad news about his company, he is guilty of insider trading.

Likewise, if one who sells in the face of nonpublic good news that will likely increase the price later, he is guilty as charged. A law that punishes the exact opposite of the behavior it is designed to deter is a stupid law. Or perhaps it is a smart law that gives the federal government tremendous power over a competing class: business executives. No wonder these guys are generally gutless supporters of the statist quo. They are terrified because they know that, given the bewildering complexity of federal laws affecting business, a federal raid on their offices, even if its initial impetus turns out to be bogus, is likely to eventually turn up evidence of some crime they never heard of and wouldn’t understand if they had.

But wait; there is hope. The regulations provide various affirmative defenses. An affirmative defense is a means for getting off the hook if one can prove the elements of the defense. This shifts the burden of proof to the accused, however--a rather important factor in a criminal case. The regulations provide for an affirmative defense that the sale was pursuant to a contract, instruction, or plan to sell made prior to becoming aware of the information. You have to prove that this was done in good faith and not to evade insider trading restrictions.

Good luck. Corporations can escape liability for insider trading if they prove that the trader did not know the inside information, even if others at the corporation did, and that the corporation

"had implemented reasonable policies and procedures, taking into consideration the nature of the person's business, to ensure that individuals making investment decisions would not violate the laws prohibiting trading on the basis of material nonpublic information. These policies and procedures may include those that restrict any purchase, sale, and causing any purchase or sale of any security as to which the person has material nonpublic information, or those that prevent such individuals from becoming aware of such information."

Is all that clear? It isn’t to me. The whole definition begs the question. Insider trading is trading with nonpublic information "in breach of a duty of trust or confidence that is owed . . . to the issuer of that security or the shareholders. . . " Since all language in a statute is presumed to mean something, it is apparent that not all trading with nonpublic information is banned, only that which breaches a duty of trust or confidence. Sadly, that critical element is not defined.

The good news for Martha, however, is that by no stretch of the imagination does she, an outsider, owe a duty of trust or confidence to the corporation or its shareholders. She is not an officer or director or employee of the corporation. Martha, you’re off the hook. No charge; it's on me.

Not so fast, though. Congress created a blank slate of securities law to be filled in by the SEC; in turn, the courts have rescued the SEC's opaque definition with their own flights of fancy. The courts invented the so-called "misappropriation theory" of insider trading.

In 1983, the Supreme Court, in a case involving a tip from a corporate insider to an outsider, while reversing sanctions against a broker, stated that:

"[A] tippee assumes a fiduciary duty to the shareholders of a corporation not to trade on material nonpublic information . . . when the insider has breached his fiduciary duty to the shareholders by disclosing the information to the tippee and the tippee knows or should know that there has been a breach." Dirks v. SEC, 463 U.S. 646 (1983).

The misappropriation theory was formally adopted by the Supreme Court in United States v. O’Hagan, 117 S. Ct. 2199 (1997). This is an interesting line of reasoning and one which a legislature might well ponder while considering legislation. However, it has no basis in the statute or the regulation interpreting that statute (10b-5). It is not an interpretation of anything. It is a statement of a new, judicially created crime of outsider trading that has ruined lives and will do so again soon.

In addition to being without any statutory basis, the judicially created crime of outsider trading has numerous problems. Under the theory, it is improper for outsiders to use the information to buy or sell stocks, but it is not improper to release the information to the entire world--even though, in the case of bad news, the latter option (legal) will damage the existing shareholders more than the former (illegal).

Also, how did anyone know in advance of the court decisions which created the rule that receiving a tip was illegal? How does anyone know in advance how the newer Rule 10b5-1 will be reconciled with the older Dix and O’Hagan cases? You may sit in jail for years, just as others have, while the lawyers and judges fight over definitions. How does the prosecutor prove that the tippee knew the tipper had breached a fiduciary duty? Even lawyers who don’t deal with trusts and estates may err on this point. How is a layman to know? Yet, he had better know or he may be prosecuted. There is solace, however. While you are rotting in your jail cell, at least you will have the satisfaction of knowing you have committed no crime.

If there is any need for the law to concern itself with the issue of insider trading, that concern would be best expressed in the form of a common-law civil suit for breach of a fiduciary obligation brought by a shareholder against a corporate insider. The advantage of this route would be that the plaintiff would have to prove actual damages.

Such is not the case in today’s statutory regime, where only certain actual damages are incurred by the targets of the law. For example, in the case of ImClone, a shareholder of ImClone would have to prove not only that Waksal breached a fiduciary duty by not disclosing his alleged advance knowledge of the FDA decision, but that the shareholders were harmed by his failure to disclose. Query: if Waksal had announced this information publicly, who would have been willing to buy the stock of these shareholders? How would they have been better off?

Better yet, why not rely on private regulation and competition to resolve the “problem” of insider trading? We are told that investors do not want to invest in corporations that engage in insider trading. Fine. Corporations that wish to maintain a healthy stock price and raise capital will announce and enforce strict policies against insider trading. Such companies will tend to raise more capital than companies that tolerate the practice. If insider trading truly has a harmful impact on companies and their stock prices, the companies that ban it will tend to drive the companies that do not ban it, out of business.

Actually, this private regulatory approach can work hand-in-hand with the common-law suit proposal. Companies that ban insider trading as a matter of policy will stipulate that stockholders may sue corporate officials who violate this policy. Investors will tend to invest in those companies that offer this legal protection. Private arbitration, cheaper and faster than the courts, is also a viable option.

Martha Stewart would be unlikely to face common-law liability, since she had no fiduciary duty to anyone at ImClone, to any ImClone stockholder, or to anyone who bought ImClone stock prior to the public announcement of the FDA decision. Nor, apparently, did she cause any harm to any ImClone stockholder. (The same cannot be said for the FDA. See, James Ostrowski, "The Most Lethal Agency,'' Free Market, 12/91.)

On the other hand, if a complete ban on insider trading is not the panacea we are led to believe it is, then companies with a more relaxed attitude about it might well be more successful and attract more capital and make more money for their shareholders. In the political market, a judge is often a lawyer whose best friend is a senator. In the free market, you can be the judge.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

James Ostrowski practices law in Buffalo, N.Y.



To: dannobee who wrote (99)9/6/2002 11:59:26 AM
From: LPS5  Respond to of 2534
 
An Open Letter to CEOs: Defend the Profit Motive — or Perish

American Businessmen Are Destroying Themselves by Appeasing Their Enemies

by Alex Epstein
21 August 2002

Dear CEO:

As a grateful customer of America's productive businesses — as someone who knows that his well-being depends on yours — I implore you to stop apologizing to your attackers. Stop pledging to "reform," to become "better corporate citizens," to embrace crippling new government regulations.

As the target of an ongoing witch-hunt, you grovel at your peril.

The overwhelming majority of you have committed no crimes, yet you accept a collective guilt for the crimes of others. You accept the premise that fraud committed by a handful of cheats somehow requires atonement by all businesses. "We must and will act collectively to rebuild the trust that has been lost by the reckless disregard of a few," promised the Business Roundtable, which represents some of the most successful American corporations. Nearly all of you have given your unequivocal endorsement to the government's campaign to restrict your freedom by micromanaging your accounting practices, by choosing which firms you can associate with, and by deciding who may be appointed to your boards.

When Islamic terrorists killed 3,000 Americans on September 11, there was no call for all Muslims to "rebuild the trust" of the public. When "eco-terrorists" fire-bomb homes and burn down ski resorts, no one calls for an Environmentalist Oversight Board to pre-empt the environmentalists' next act of destruction. Why are only businessmen collectively reviled and treated as guilty until proven innocent?

Do not say it is because you do not "contribute enough to society." We all know that businessmen produce the computers, airplanes, medicines, and food that improve all our lives. It is not your effect on others, but your motive that causes you to be damned. Other groups, we are told, have a "noble," selfless motivation—Muslims serve Allah, environmentalists sacrifice for the sake of nature. No matter how many terrorist attacks occur in the name of Islam's call for jihad against non-Muslims or the environmentalists' quest to "safeguard nature" from man—such groups are viewed as pursuing inherently moral and benevolent ends. You, by contrast, are viewed as inherently immoral. Your "corrupt" desire for profits is why you are the first scapegoat for every social problem—from stock-market crashes to power crises to rampant obesity—and why the proposed solution is always more regulation.

It is your motive, therefore, that you must uncompromisingly defend. You must assert your moral right to make money—not because you intend to use it for some "public purpose," but because you have earned it and are entitled to enjoy its benefits.

Instead, you apologize for pursuing your self-interest. You claim that your real motive is self-sacrifice—that you are eager to subordinate your profits for the sake of the "community." Your conciliatory attitude, you have hoped, would improve your public image and make the government less eager to impose greater controls and to expropriate more of your wealth. But has this approach worked? Or has it instead simply surrendered the sphere of morality to the enemies of capitalism, thereby inviting ever-increasing constraints on business?

You are simply sanctioning your own victimization. You are conceding that you have no moral right to the profits you have earned, and that the fundamental justification for your existence is your self-effacing willingness to serve others. No amount of altruistic posturing will ward off assaults based on hatred of profit, capitalism, and self-interest. Everyone knows that the essence of your work is the pursuit of profit. To treat it as shameful by trying to disguise its nature leaves you defenseless. If you continue to echo the unquestioned bromide that virtue consists of selfless servitude, you will only invite more smears, more scapegoating, more lawsuits, more government controls.

Your only option, if you wish to survive and be free, is to morally disarm your attackers by upholding the virtue of making money. Defend your pursuit of profit. Be proud that you have become rich; your income—unlike that of the politicians who denounce you—is the result not of coercion, but of honest production and voluntary trade. Denounce the regulations that treat you as a criminal. Proclaim that you, too, are included in the Declaration of Independence—that your life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness are yours by inalienable right, and need not be justified by your becoming a rightless servant of "society."

Businessmen beware: appeasement of your moral enemies is leading you to destruction. Do any among you have the courage to stand up and fight?

***

Alex Epstein is a writer for the Ayn Rand Institute in Irvine, Calif.



To: dannobee who wrote (99)9/17/2002 9:58:04 AM
From: LPS5  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2534
 
(Your opinion?)

Interest Rates Can Do Their Job

by Roger W. Garrison
Posted September 17, 200

In these times of faltering growth and worries about a relapse into recession, we ask pointed questions about the competency of our leaders and policymakers. Is Mr. Bush not doing his job? Is Mr. Greenspan not doing his? There is plenty of finger-pointing to be done, but to bring the original culprit into view, we must step back from the current politics and personalities and ask: Are interest rates not doing their job?

Nearly a lifetime ago, John Maynard Keynes launched his revolution largely on the basis of his belief that interest rates don’t do their job and that the market economy is inherently flawed by this shirking. So, just what, exactly, is their job? According to most of Keynes’s peers, interest rates keep investment in line with saving. Responding to ordinary market pressures in ordinary ways (supply and demand), interest rates can find their own level, thereby providing just the right incentives and constraints. Governed by this "natural rate of interest" (the pre-Keynesians always used the singular to express the idea), the resources that the business community commits to investment projects will be consistent with people’s willingness to forgo current consumption. Such market-directed saving and investment allow for healthy economic growth. Minor movements in interest rates can make small corrections to the growth rate, immunizing the economy against larger corrections in the form of recessions.

Keynes was blunt in rejecting wholesale even the possibility that things might work this way. The classical economists, he claimed, "are fallaciously supposing that there is a nexus which unites decisions to abstain from present consumption with decisions to provide for future consumption" (The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, London: Macmillan, 1936, p. 21). Significantly, Keynes’s verdict of "no-nexus" left interest rates up for grabs. If they weren’t doing their job anyway, maybe they could be used for purposes of macro-management.

Keynes’s no-nexus macroeconomics is conducive to circular reasoning and is replete with self-fulfilling prophesies. Optimism inspires investment spending, which creates jobs and bolsters consumer demand; the favorable market conditions translate into high profits, justifying the optimism. But investment spending spurred only by unabetted optimism may not be sufficiently strong in the eyes of elected officials and policymakers. Lower interest rates engineered by monetary expansion may be called for. And if the easy money gives rise to over-optimism (a.k.a. "irrational exuberance"), higher interest rates engineered by monetary contraction may be in order.

Cool reflection on Keynesianism suggests some self-fulfillment of a different sort. If interest rates are used as a policy tool for abetting and abating investor optimism, then they cannot at the same time perform their growth-governing function as envisioned by the classical economists. Believing, as Keynes did, that interest rates don’t do their job gives license to a policy regime in which interest rates cannot possibly do their job.

Other elements of Keynesianism have similar self-fulfilling qualities. The labor market is slow to adapt itself to conditions of reduced investment spending. Wage rates, Keynes insisted, are sticky downward. Investment spending must be stimulated or government spending must be increased so that workers can be hired at prevailing wage rates. Here, too, policy turns belief into reality. The Keynesian belief that workers will not accept wage cuts begets a policy regime in which workers would be fools to accept wage cuts.

"Keynesian stabilization policy" should be seen for the oxymoron that it is. Keynesian policies do not stabilize the economy; they Keynesianize the economy. That is, a policy-driven economy mimics the unstable behavior that Keynes thought to be characteristic of a market economy.

So now the central bank has ratcheted the federal funds rate all the way down to 1.75 percent, the medium and longer-term rates coming down to a lesser extent. Having failed to stimulate much investment, the cheap credit has stimulated consumer spending instead. And neither Mr. Greenspan nor anyone else is sure what to do next. Is the current 1.75 percent too high or too low?

The answer, it turns out, is both. The 1.75 is too high in light of the volatile and faltering asset prices and the paucity of job-creating investment activities. But it is too low in the light of plausible values for the natural rate of interest, which alone can be associated with sustainable economic growth. Further, the too-high/too-low diagnosis gives rise to the very uncertainties that dampen investor optimism and hence whet political appetites for Keynesian stabilization policies.

Current interest rates are too policy-infected to have much significance at all except as a basis for guessing about future interest-rate policy. Keynes, we now should all see, did his job very badly. The Federal Reserve will eventually have to abandon interest-rate targeting if the market economy is to have a chance to right itself. (The Volcker Fed turned rates loose in 1979 under very different but equally untenable circumstances.) Interest rates can do their job, but they need some on-the-job training. Ongoing debate in Washington and on Wall Street suggests that in the foreseeable future, they’re not likely to get any.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roger W. Garrison is a professor of economics at Auburn University.



To: dannobee who wrote (99)10/2/2002 9:12:32 AM
From: LPS5  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2534
 
The Fed on the Horns of a Dilemma
by Hans F. Sennholz
October 2, 2002

The Federal Reserve System may have run out of room to maneuver. Facing a looming recession, it resolutely lowered its discount rate and frantically expanded its credits. Eager to stimulate the sagging economy, it enabled and encouraged businessmen to invest more and consumers to go ever deeper into debt. Yet the specter of recession refuses to fade away.

What is the Fed--the appointed "guardian of prosperity"--to do? If it persists in expanding its credits, it may weaken the dollar and ultimately frighten foreign creditors around the globe. The dollar may fall versus the euro and other currencies, which may persuade foreign lenders to reduce or even liquidate their dollar holdings. But the Fed may also discover that all its expansionist efforts may be in vain, as economic activity contracts and goods prices stagnate or even decline. In uncertainty and fear, the people tend to cling to their cash holdings, which may render all Fed efforts to "reinflate" rather ineffective. Further discount rate reductions may fail to spur economic activity.

The Fed's dilemma springs from an abused and maladjusted credit market which, after many years of Fed intervention and manipulation, is turning unmanageable. The laws of the market, in particular the law of supply and demand, are inexorably working their ways and prevailing over Fed hopes and aspirations. In 2001, the Fed lowered its discount rate 11 times in order to invigorate the economy. In 2002, with the discount rate at 1¼ percent and the Federal Funds rate not much higher, total Federal Reserve credit has been expanding at rapid rates. On September 2, 2002, it stood at $665 billion, up from $609 billion a year ago.

Relying and building on this credit basis, commercial banks and other financial institutions expanded the stock of money (M3) from $7.6 trillion to $8.2 trillion, engaging in "loan securization," that is, the conversion of loans into marketable securities for sale to investors. They lend, securitize, sell, and lend again, in a continuing process of credit expansion. Offshore banks in the Cayman Islands, in Hong Kong, Panama, and Singapore add unknown volumes of their dollar credits, keeping the world money markets awash in U.S. dollars.

Should any other of the 174 central banks imitate the Fed and expand credit at such rates, its currency would depreciate immediately and goods prices would soar. It soon would face double-digit inflation and, should the expansion not cease promptly, runaway inflation. In the end, it would experience a universal flight from the currency and complete loss of its purchasing power.

The Federal Reserve System is subject to the same inexorable principles of economics, but, in contrast to all other central banks, the demand for its currency is worldwide. It is the world central bank managing the world dollar standard. It attained this prominent position because of the eminent position of the United States in world trade and finance. Although several other currencies are demonstrably more stable than the U.S. dollar, their small volumes render them unsuitable for assuming the universal position and function. The euro, which, since 1999, has been the currency of several European countries, may turn into a potential competitor to the U.S. dollar.

The dollar's eminent position in the world bestows extraordinary powers on the Fed. It grants the Fed a leeway of expansion much wider than that of any other bank. The worldwide demand for U.S. dollars supports their exchange value and offers the Fed a wide margin of credit expansion without visibly weakening the dollar. In its economic transactions with the rest of the world, it enables the United States to suffer annual deficits of more than $400 billion in its "current accounts"; that is, it allows the American people to import more goods and services than they export, which obviously benefits them greatly.

Many economists view the deficits as clear evidence that Americans are living beyond their means, a situation which cannot continue indefinitely, and may even invite envy and enmity. U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and his economists, on the other hand, seek to reassure their followers that a current-account deficit is always offset by a surplus in the capital account, that is, a net influx of capital. The deficit, in O'Neill's belief, is cogent proof of the desirability of the United States as a haven for foreign capital. As long as the United States offers ample opportunities for profitable foreign investments, there is no reason for concern. The trade deficits are mere symptoms of the attractiveness of American capital markets.

The O'Neill argument unfortunately ignores several recent developments that cast doubt on some aspects of this attraction. Much foreign capital that is seeking profitable employment in the United States does not find its way into economic production; rather, it finances private and public consumption.

While the current-account deficits have risen in recent years, foreign enterprise investments have dwindled. Nearly all the deficits now are financed by debt instruments that must be served out of current income. The foreign purchase of U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds facilitates government spending; foreigners now hold more than $800 billion of U.S. government debt which is serviced by tax funds. If foreign investors should ever tire of financing the deficits, the U.S. dollar would come under pressure. In fact, it would fall if foreign holders should lose confidence in the dollar and begin to liquidate their dollar investments. The flood of imports would subside, American exports would increase, and goods prices would soar.

In recent months, the U.S. dollar has fallen substantially versus the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound. While further interest rate reductions by the Fed may accelerate this fall, they may not cause many goods prices to rise. On the contrary, a recession may initially overwhelm the forces of inflation and develop symptoms of contraction. Distress and liquidation sales tend to depress goods prices, as do producers and consumers clinging to their cash holdings. A growing demand for money obviously increases the value of money and depresses goods prices. In popular jargon, a recession may usher in "deflation," no matter how frantically the Fed may inflate its stock of money.

The Japanese recession, which has held that country in its grip since 1991, may serve as a warning of the unintended consequences of interest rate cuts and massive deficit spending. The Japanese economy is sinking ever deeper into a depression, with unemployment rising and stock prices falling although the Bank of Japan's discount rate hovers near zero and the prime rate is quoted at 1.375 percent, which compares with 1¼ percent and 4¾ percent, respectively, in the United States.

The Japanese government indebtedness exceeds 150 percent of GDP, which compares with the U.S. government debt of just 50 percent of GDP. The government obviously is trying to spend its way out of recession by consuming the people's savings, but instead merely is aggravating the decline. Indeed, the world is wondering how the Japanese people will ever be able to emerge from the deep hole dug by their government and its central bank.

In a recession, the quality of many credit transactions is called into question. With total indebtedness in the United States more than double the annual GDP--higher than ever before--a recession would jar and unsettle the whole credit structure, which would render any further Fed interest rate reduction rather ineffective. When numerous companies suffer staggering losses and finally are unable to discharge their liabilities, they cannot be saved by another cut in interest rates.

If, in desperation, the Fed should drive its rate even to zero, it could not thereby help an enterprise whose notes and bonds are marketed at double-digit rates. In short, the Fed may become rather impotent when the economy sinks into recession. Nevertheless, it can be expected to continue its policy of ease in the hope of rekindling the boom and thereby justifying its existence.

The current Middle East crisis could leave its mark on the American economy. If, in the coming months, the United States should strike at Iraq in order to remove a persistent source of terrorism, the price of oil undoubtedly would soar, which, together with the weakened dollar, would soon lift many goods prices. In previous international crises, the U.S. dollar actually strengthened because foreign capital sought refuge in the safe capital harbors of the United States.

In a new Iraqian crisis, the United States may lack the support of its traditional allies in Europe, which may actually lead to a withdrawal of some European funds and a decline of the dollar in world money markets. Moreover, American financial markets surely would lose some deposits and investments of the oil sheiks of Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries, and that would aggravate the pressure on the dollar. If the Fed should substitute its own funds for the foreign funds withdrawn, it would weaken the dollar even further.

No one can foresee the scope and duration of such a conflict and its economic consequences. Yet we do presume that the symptoms of recession would soon give way to the well-known characteristics of inflation, as federal spending accelerates and the Fed accommodates the spending. As the dollar weakens and, in turn, reduces the stream of imports, goods prices are likely to rise again. That would improve the profitability of many industries, which would encourage new investments and more consumer spending.

Economic activity would soon accelerate, and the present correction and readjustment process would draw to an end. New distortions and maladjustments would be heaped on the old. In short, the needed correction would be postponed until, a few years from now, it would begin anew with a shrunken dollar. In the meantime, the excitements of war would make us forget our economic troubles.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hans F. Sennholz, emeritus professor of economics at Grove City College, is an adjunct scholar of the Mises Institute.