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To: mishedlo who wrote (51116)	8/24/2002 1:57:19 AM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 209892

Mish, in a word: BRILLIANT! (: augie

To: mishedlo who wrote (51116)	8/24/2002 8:58:28 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

That's quite a post mish. -g I agree that the option traders, the hedge funds, and I would add program trading, are having their way much of the time. Often though, it is beyond their control. All of the sharp declines we have had since the Spring of 2000 fall into this category. Timing the turns and the wiggles is nearly impossibly hard. So what. We all knew that things were getting stupid to the downside in July, with all the newbie shorts playing the new game. It took much longer than I would have thought for these guys to get whacked. I was looking for it to happen in June if you'll recall (i.e., a newbie squeeze). I won't ramble any more. I am not sure what thoughts you were looking for out of that missive of yours.

To: mishedlo who wrote (51116)	8/25/2002 2:48:50 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

mish -- while i will stay away from the conspiracy theories (i.e. who is 'running' the market) i will agree w/ your assessment that the whipsaws are going to be enormous for YEARS. it will not surprise you that August has not been a profitable month for me, although that in and of itself is uninteresting as i am definitely NOT a 'wiggle' trader and am decently net short in my equity account, so of course i am down and i sort-of expected to be down. what IS interesting/surprising to me is the way certain companies/stocks have been acting recently. for example, the other day i was short JDEC and long WSM going into quarterly reports for both; JDEC missed the license revenue number, guided the next quarter down and the stock went UP $2 bucks, while WSM beat the quarter and guided up but went DOWN $2 bucks. the next day TECD made the number but guided down by about 10%, and in the aweful tape of Friday it only went down a $1 buck. so basically, i am confused at sh8t, and it sounds like you are too, and it seems that many others on this board are as well. i will say two things though. one, EVERYBODY knows about the gigantic H&S on the S&P. we breached the neckline hard and on big volume, and have now had a low-volume rally back to the neckline. NOBODY believes it can be that simple; this is the farking S&P for christ's sake; it ain't gonna just test the neckline and head back down again. no way. two, EVERYBODY knows that we just had a panic low in the 10-year bond as it breached 3.xxx intra-day two weeks ago. NOBODY believes that bonds, especially treasuries, are a good value here with yields at generational lows. i would be very careful of what everybody knows and nobody believes. Cheers