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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (2621)	8/24/2002 2:36:56 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

HI G, Back from salmon fishing in Alaska ( Valdez ). Record margin debt is an excellent timer for major market peaks.During January and February of 2000 IBD posted record margin levels ( around and over 4 billion ). I've kept them taped on top of my old computer. Record low levels are an excellent sign of the final product of major market capitulations.It is the result of risk aversion and trimming of long term positions to what I personally call getting bulletproof. The fact that we have rerached a low that equals October 98 - I believe, is significant. With the tremendous gains created by the 2000 distribution top - both in terms of money and number of participants, an equal level of overall margin debt now in 2002 tells the story of devistation this bear has imposed. These are times of healing and a re-evaluation of what one's balance should be. Many partcipants have sought real estate and bonds as safe harbors. I fear the illiquidity of real estate and just wonder what those who buy bonds at these levels anticipate for long term returns? These major market bottoms are always marked by false starts,that pop and return to bases.The manic bouncing of analysts is just noise. Flat bases of little price action,although boring,is the best sign of institutional nibbling and support.This seeming lack of going anywhere is the sign of future strength,as accumulation of strong hands is ongoing.The accumulation is not greedy but rather subtle in an attempt to quietly minimize price (at a great value). As the bottoms of these cups go in, it is key to remember the longer the better. One last thought - always expect the final shakeout - it is the last and best "perfect buy". In keeping with the theme of low margin - I'll be buying a final shakeout with my cash savings and not margin. Margin will be saved for the break out on big volume as many of theses stocks re- breakout from what now appears to be W bottoms or in some cases double W bottoms. The linked post about low vix followed by drops shows that a stock's inability to sustain a rise will have to be proven several times - so we learn to doubt it when the real thing occurs. This market will require more patience.During these long waiting times more accumulation (at a great value will be the long term winning thing to do). JMHO Bob