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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (51124)	8/24/2002 9:43:23 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

I keep going back to the melt in VXN/QQV. The fact is, right here tech options are very cheap. That's not right. The VXN has now melted down to the point where it fell to after the entire rise into the Dec/Jan high, which is about 70% higher than where NDX is trading on Friday.

To: skinowski who wrote (51124)	8/24/2002 3:49:15 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

sninkowski, "one must be anticipatory but also conservative" I basically disagree with that, in that I feel that being anticipatory is the antithesis of being conservative. Although one might get away with being anticipatory if ones holding period is only a few minutes or a few hours (wiggle trading) but beyond that I don't think it's a good idea to do so. For example last week a much discussed indicator was the low P/C ratio which led many to make anticipatory moves only to find that the were misled. I'm a firm believer in waiting for the roll (or preferably, a second roll) and then playing it. A good example was yesterday's action, where (as it turned out) you could have waited until the direction was clear around 10:30 or so and still get in on the short action for a few wiggles. Sure, waiting for the roll means you're missing the beginning of the action, but I've always been perfectly happy only to take bites out of the middle. I use this philosophy in whatever timeframe I happen to be trading in, whether I'm using 3-minute, 15 minute, hourly, or daily charts. Although I had a strong feeling Thursday night that we'd go down Friday, I kept my hands in my pockets. Even though I'd miss the top, I'd feel a lot more comfortable waiting to go moderately short when the blue line crosses below the red in the chart below.http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$compq,uu[l,a]daclyyay[pc5!c8][vc60][iLh8,3!La12,26,9]&pref=G Although I'm sure you meant "conservative" as it applies to position sizing, I've always found that that being anticipatory of market direction can quickly move against me no matter what the circumstances, whether I'm anticipating an indicator move, chart pattern completion, or whatever.