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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)	8/24/2002 11:43:46 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 209892

I vote for #3 keeping in mind that Durable Goods may disappoint and then talked over as it is "old - back mirror" information. This administration wants the market up for the election just forget fundamentals trade deficits budget deficits and piles of debt evaporating money supply is raising at a triple rate of GDP research.stlouisfed.org Dow Chemical Co. and National Rural Utilities Cooperative Finance Corp. are among companies that ended a dry spell for U.S. corporate bond sales, making this week the busiest since January, with a total of $16.1 billion in new debt. At the same time, a fifth weekly gain in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index helped boost demand for the currency. ``Everyone likes the dollar now,'' said Chris Melendez, president of Tempest Asset Management, a hedge fund in Irvine, California. Along with gains in stocks, U.S. ``corporate debt issuance has been well-subscribed and that shows confidence in our asset markets, which is the reason you've seen a lot of asset managers buying dollars,'' he said. quote.bloomberg.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)	8/24/2002 11:45:55 AM
From: Killswitch	Respond to of 209892

Perhaps the best strategy here would be to simply short all you want above $25 QQQ, and just hold it unless Thursday's high is taken out (or Friday's if you want a closer stop). Under all 3 of your scenarios this should work out fine. It may be that trying to actively trade this on a day to day basis will be more trouble than it's worth, and if you're expecting a lower low later this year, now is an excellent time to hop on board and wait for it.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)	8/24/2002 12:26:18 PM
From: Paul Shread	Respond to of 209892

The one thing I haven't heard (with the possible exception of Velo) is that we head to new lows across the board from here. Given how little upside fuel there is, I think that is a possibility. We've had five straight up weeks for the Dow. That hasn't ended well over the last couple of years - March 2002 and August 2000 were the only other occurrences. The S&P had five straight up weeks for the first time since August 2000. It's also interesting that the equity PC ratio was under .50 for five straight days for the first time since August 2000, despite a trend of much higher readings since then.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)	8/24/2002 1:08:40 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

3) The middle road: This is the option killing road, a whipsaw path that would be hard to trade. It would see the drop going deeper than most expect, getting the disinterested and scared bears back into the market. Once we get these reinvigorated shorts back on board, we rise into September expiration, enough to kill the eager put buyers, but still below where we are now so that the calls going off in this last round of panic buying die too. Ding Ding. The likely winner. This has been the overall pattern since Jan. Every month but 2 played out like this. Downdraft, rise into expiry week, immediately resumed downdraft. Since no one is talking about this pattern it is the most likely. In fact I am not sure anyone has even noticed it. I have even seen several posts saying Max Pain is not going to be of much use from here on out. Actually Max Pain has worked every month but one, and the pattern above every month but two since Jan. Damn we are talking about that pattern now. Of course it will not become unreliable until we have concensus that it is the most likely course of action. Should I have kept my mouth shut? Perhaps I am doing my part to build a concensus that will fail instead of trying to profit by it. ggg M

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)	8/24/2002 3:05:13 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 209892

Nice post. I guess I feel (3) is still most likely, simply because killing options preemie is sooooo attractive to the boys. But with a little fundamental help, I could see (2) happening as well. EDIT: Next week is a BIG week for economic numbers!<NG> biz.yahoo.com

To: AllansAlias who wrote (51126)	8/25/2002 6:10:01 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 209892

AA: if scenario three were it, one would imagine lots of sector rotation: laggardsplaying catch up. Perhaps airlines, telecos could bounce whilst banks and consumers fall? I like the looks of BBBY here as a short.