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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (5060)	8/24/2002 4:37:11 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95574

Hi RtS, I give a level of reasonableness to your 242 call for the Sox. On the other hand I think some credibility must also go to the scenario that acknowledges that many stocks such as Amat have undergone a W formation.Of great technical importance - it must be pointed out that the low of the second base(12.58) violated the low of the first base(13.30).Both of these base lows exceeded the sharp sell-off low that occurred in October of 2000(17.06). This double bottom base is technically a very sound development and add to that the time duration of now over 22 months. During bottom actions it is normal to get conditioned to a continuance of negative price action - I too succumb to this fear. I still think it is worth staying positive regarding the strength of the current price formation.I think it is worth nibbling at with an "add to" basis as a range developes in sideways price action.Emphasis being placed on buying the lower range not the higher range.gg We've endured the how low is low doubtful era,followed by the its too soon to rise with out earnings era and now we have the guru's telling us it is 12 months out again.Keep in mind these guys said the sky was the limit in March of 2000. So all these guys are good at is betting on the trend ,which makes them absolutely 180 degrees of when the trend reverses.Most downtrends don't reverse they go sideways first. Sideways is another way of saying depressing false starts and declines.Sometimes we get a final shakeout and retouch past lows or go lower ( 12.58- 11.75).I'm thinking any dip to 13's is a great buy with a measured risk of 1.00-1.50 under water. I think our wait is much shorter than these guru's are predicting. The last stage of a stock before it rises is it must prove to the masses that it will never rise again in the future. That's the mood that gets even strong holders out and maximizes the REAL strong hands that are undergoing accumulation. We've gone thru too much too long for me to buy into the idea that the cycle won't come back. Inventories are too low and these guys are doing it just right - playing it slow and cautious.Big inventories is big losses. They've just managed to break even - they don't want to lose anymore - CAUTION will be the word for quite a while as memories of losses and layoffs are still too vivid for reckless abandon or aggression. JMHO Bob stockcharts.com[l,a]mhclyiay[d19950101,20021231][pb50!b200!d20,2!i!f][vc60][iUb14!Uk14!Ul14!Lp14,3,3!Lf!Lc20!Lah12,26,9]&pref=G Note how similar the price action is to what AMAT went thru in the 97-98 sell off? I.E. Sharp sell of in Nov 97 to 6.38, a first base low to 6.50 and a second base low to 5.39.The second base which is usually important for the low to violate the first bases low didn't disappoint. The strength of these formations both current and in the past must be accorded its respect. The not too soon after price appreciation that results is the stuff that makes millionaires. Keep the faith and HOLD WITH CONFIDENCE. I say if it gets in the 13's its a gift and we need to buy it again.