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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (14456)	8/24/2002 1:19:41 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

J.T., if indeed the public was shorting heavily relative to specialists in the last 33 weeks, it seems the public was right for the first 31 weeks of that reporting period (since those numbers are delayed by two weeks), has that indicator lost some of its predictive capacity? Zeev

To: J.T. who wrote (14456)	8/25/2002 10:08:31 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 19219

how often do you get these numbers on short interest -- monthly??

To: J.T. who wrote (14456)	8/26/2002 2:47:20 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 19219

J.T., On Friday the ARMS Index put in one of the most dramatic days in a long time rising from Thursday's close of .54 to close at 2.91.... one of the single largest moves within days ever.....! Don't know what that means....? ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Tuesday 28th is a humdinger Brings a daily TP Brings a 65m TP at 10:15 (Aug) and 1:30pm (July) And a 15m at 12:15pm So Tuesday should present some information on trend....! Fib structures also project to Wed as a Time Wave cycle due 130m charts SPX and DOW are holding their lower trend lines Only the astro is positive as this point, and the 130m chart spiral BTW, still favor a close the gap and new highs for the move, confirmed Tues and wed....

To: J.T. who wrote (14456)	8/26/2002 3:51:20 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 19219

J.T., Is this information available to the public on a weekly basis... or do you have to dig it out from many sources....? Is it in Barons...? >>NYSE TS/TV at a near historic 14.5% short percentage to total volume for the latest reporting week.<< >>Excluding this latest reporting week, the prior two weeks reporting period registered RECORD PUBLIC SHORTING LEVELS.<< >>Over 1.4 BILLION shares bought and buried by the smart money since Feb 15 reporting week.<< >>33 weeks in a row Public shorting above the Specialists.<< Been spending a lot of time taking apart the ARMS Index and the insights are significant as you look into it's internal structure..., it is still very bullish As is the 25day Sum of the NYSE ADV/DECLN

To: J.T. who wrote (14456)	8/29/2002 3:57:30 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 19219

J.T., Since I posted here my turn dates, a follow up seems needed. The series of Time Projections presented did not change the downward trend into the 27th and 278th as I had anticipated, so that part of my read was wrong for this time around. But I'm not yet ready to sell my long positions. Certainly the internals and chart patterns are weakening, and pointing towads further market declines, but todays bar is looking better at the close, and the SPX looks to have found horizontal support at 900±. Also the dollar and bonds look stronger on the day. Finally it is not totally wrong to believe that the markets will rise into and after Sept 11, 2002 as the country faces that tragedy. My Best, Chip