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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: verdad who wrote (123521)	8/24/2002 6:15:01 PM
From: jackmore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Re: Q's chances of success Let's suppose that we know nothing of the details or the merits of the tech involved. Assume that CDMA is one black box(A)and WCDMA is another black box(B). Further assume that we know nothing of the costs to deploy either tech. Also assume that we are only able to observe the behavior of the competitors, nothing else. What have we seen/do we see? 1. Proponents of BoxA claim it is better than BoxB and that they have patents on BoxA. 2. Pros of BoxB deny that, and first declare that BoxA will not work, then that they really invented it, then that it is really not needed - BoxB will be good enough, etc.,etc. 3. Further, BoxB pros claim their tech circumvents BoxA patents. 4. Various disputes end up in patent courts in several countries. The vast majority of BoxA patents are upheld. 5. BoxB pros mount a huge FUD campaign to discredit claims of BoxA proponents, while hyping a yet to be proven BoxB tech. 6. All (or nearly all) BoxB proponents purchase licenses from the BoxA proponent, agree to pay royalties, and also cross license the patents to BoxB (i.e. forfeit royalty claims on BoxB). 7. All kinds of other players come into the picture to claim that they have new tech that will circumvent BoxA's tech (e.g. ADT,WiFi,OFDM...) So who has the goods here? Who is the one to beat? Hint: It's not BoxB proponents. They're the ones making all the noise. The BoxA proponent quietly goes about its business. And finally, point 8. BoxA begins to deploy in various regions and experiences healthy uptake. One flavor of BoxB begins to deploy and experiences anemic interest. Other BoxB deployment is delayed for technical reasons. Now, who is looking like the winner?