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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (39787)	8/25/2002 12:01:38 PM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

>>Why Arab leaders fear regime change By Robert Stewart August 22, 2002 Critics of "regime change" in Iraq often ask the same question to disparage those who support an invasion: Who, or what will replace Saddam Hussein? The answer: freedom and prosperity. It is important to remember that Hussein came to power not by popular support, but by being the strongman for the Ba'ath Party. He consolidated power through a paranoid, Hitler-like genocide of his own people. And like many of his colleagues in the region, he does not have the support of the people; he has only the fear of the people. Unlike many critics in the West, Arab governments who decry an invasion of Iraq do so not because they oppose war, worry about Hussein's replacement or dread his retaliation. Rather, they fear the democracy his ouster would likely bring. The monarchies and dictators ruling the nations neighboring Iraq learned from the collapse of the Berlin Wall that freedom, once tasted by oppressed peoples, becomes an irresistible force for change. To stem the tide of defections and unrest in East Germany near the end of the Cold War, party boss Erich Honecker allowed West German television broadcasts in the country and, for some citizens, permitted short trips to the West. It proved to be his undoing, and played a major role in the death of communism across Europe. Once East Germans caught glimpses of freedom and saw the benefits of an open economy, the scales fell from their eyes, and the floodgates were opened. One émigré to West Berlin in 1989 described his arrival in the West in emotional terms that no doubt were echoed by many who followed: "I just burst into tears. It was all there. Everything they had been denying me my whole life." It is this taste of freedom that is so hazardous to the continued rule of many Arab dictators. These governments' main vulnerabilities are democracy and the benefits it creates: free economies, an unshackling from government oppression and previously unheard-of economic opportunities. This potential loss of control explains why so many Arab nations oppose toppling Saddam Hussein. Once Iraq's Ba'ath regime is replaced with a democracy, people living in surrounding nations soon demand their own stake in the government their future. Though there are currently no democracies in the vast space of land between Israel and Turkey, no examples for the people living under dictatorial rule to emulate - but democracy is infectious. When the people of Iran or Saudi Arabia see a dictator replaced by a successful democracy and witness the benefits of freedom that would follow, they will not long remain supportive of their own repressive governments. Though some Arab nations - notably Jordan and Qatar - will support a coalition invasion of Iraq when the moment for battle nears, they are among the least repressive, the nations least at risk for violent uprisings in support of democracy. Jordan's King Abdallah, perhaps the most forward-thinking leader in the region, supports a more open economy and a less repressive government. He understands the value of modernity, trade and a more open society - as well as the benefits they can bring. And Qatar, though a monarchy, allows for an open media - most notably al-Jazeera, the television network that has angered friends and foes alike by reporting on human rights violations and Hussein's excesses, rather than parroting the party line. Make no mistake; Hussein poses a very real threat to his neighbors, just as he does to the United States and the free world. But Arab dictators have made a fateful decision - as many Eastern European nations did at the onset of the Cold War - that a dangerous regime as a neighbor is less of a threat than freedom. The nations who chose to appease communist Russia were soon rewarded with occupation. They wasted decades in poverty and brutality before finding the inevitable road back to freedom. The Arab dictators - many of whom rule through brutality, total repression of women and minorities and fear - have forgotten the fate of such dictators as Honecker, who was exiled under threat of death, and Nicolae Ceausescu of Romania who suffered a public hanging when the people were freed from his reign of tyranny. Sooner or later citizens of Arab nations, too, will find the path to liberty. These dictators ignore the power of freedom at their own peril. The people may not be free overnight - but they will be free. What role do the current dictators want to play in that freedom: barrier or aid? It is in their leaders self interest not to wait for certain occupation by Iraq or internal uprising before learning the lessons of history at the point of a gun, or the rope of a mob. << web.israelinsider.com;