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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (5081)	8/25/2002 4:58:41 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95574

At this point I am looking at it as a contrarian indicator. I would expect that bpNDX will briefly dip below 60 before the rally resumes and it rises again. Once it starts rising again the bpNDX should stall between 70 and 80, as we both apparently expect, at which point it will be an excellent opportunity to short certain stocks. If everything unfolds on a normal seasonal basis we are likely to get more selling this fall. Short term we could get some more selling tomorrow and Tuesday morning perhaps followed by another swing higher towards the end of the week and perhaps shortly beyond. This rally should fail though unless the economic data this week is surprisingly strong. In addition the SOX must rise above 400 to confirm we have a chance for this rally to continue. If it does not then to me it seems we will be set up for a retest of the July lows with potentially lower lows by late October. While all these thoughts may seem somewhat contradictory, or even fanciful, common sense tells me that without the SOX taking a leadership position to the upside that the NASDAQ is still in full fledged Bear Market mode despite an admirable Bear Market rally. JMHO, RtS