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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (5166)	8/26/2002 12:23:30 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

wow Tip, i thought i had brought you over to the hard-core deflationists camp. guess not. <<when the 10 yr yield visits 3.8 or so, I'd sell and wait>> i am pretty much on record as saying i'll sell in 20% chunks every 20 bps between 3.xxx and 3.200; while i think we're going to see a 2.xxx handle i'm not willing to bet actual capital on it. so i got my first 20% off a couple of weeks ago. that said i must regrettfully admit that i was feeling naked without that 20% and bought it back at 4.27 last week. as far as the foreign fund flows, IMO the slowing of foreign fund flows will be coincident with a contraction in imports as the boomer bubble-holics start their 12-step debt austerity programs. so no dollar 'crash' and no rate increase to 'defend' the currency; it'll be decently balanced with the dollar falling in stair-steps another 10%, maybe as much as 20%. i would also note that there are SOOOOOOO many people saying rates will go UP 'cause Greenie will have to defend the dollar that even if i didn't have an opinion on a mechanism by which this would not happen i would STILL bet against it. Cheers