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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: reaper who wrote (5170)	8/25/2002 10:22:48 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 89467

reaper, rates may also rise if the buck tanks so much Greenie has to raise them to defend it. I'm not sure this will happen, but it is a possibility.

To: reaper who wrote (5170)	8/26/2002 12:44:00 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 89467

threats for lower rates are two: debt collapse, recession threats for higher rates are many, a great many: - widening trade gap despite lower dollar, or even continued wide trade gap - escalating federal debts and foreign growing unwillingness to fund it - rising commodity costs (food, energy mainly) - creeping import price rises from dollar decline - departing Arab petro-dollar reconversion investment - lost confidence in American leadership leads to more dollar selling - serious US bank deterioration amidst continued bond defaults and foreign sovereign debt defaults (Latin America) - continued stock market decline and dollar selling - recession my best guess is rates fall a little more they venture below 4.0% on the TENyr but after November elections all hell breaks loose on the dollar, as a followup to breakdowns within the stock market from gradual slippage into recession then comes the tidal wave of lawsuits following all this, next year sees a surprising rate rise which confuses the masses, since it is dollar-driven / jim