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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (146167)	8/26/2002 8:07:59 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164685

You did not get it then and you never will. Oil, that old economy commodity, is more highly correlated with the business cycle than interest rates. The recession was set in motion by persistently high energy prices at a time when AG was tightening. Energy prices were kept high into the fall because of a shortage of refinery capacity. I posted on this extensively at the time -- you scoffed at the idea that recession was coming and saw no connection between rising energy prices as a threat to the "new economy". You also saw no connection between rising interest rates and the new economy -- you said the new economy stocks are not interest rate sensitive because they had little debt (one of your dumber ideas). You saw no relationship between the deteriorating balance sheets of telcos and the likely direction of telco equipment sales (you said that sales would grow because the telcos were forced to buy more equipment to stay competitive no matter what their balance sheets looked like (another one of the really dumb ideas you shared) You have always been really good at not seeing how the economic world around you shapes the prospects for technology stocks. Your expectations are like pipedreams -- lofty and self-contained with little connection to the real world. Energy prices set the stage for this last recession Bill -- good old oil.