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To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (123541)	8/26/2002 10:20:19 AM
From: John Hayman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

robv When the first autos came out I assume the same argument was discussed by many. The scene: Two GSM cowboys sitting on their horse looking down to the valley below where the first CDMA automobile coughs and sputters...."Well hell fire buckaroo, those darn things will never take the place of our horses!!! Interesting to note, there are more horses now than ever before in the USA!! But........... CDMA is the future, not GSM. I am sure in the future ERICY will get a call from BF Egypt asking for a "cheap unit" and the warehouse guys will dust off an old GSM unit to sell them.....and for years to come, but they will never be the future again. Just left over from the past. Time is up! Give it up! John

To: Dexter Lives On who wrote (123541)	8/26/2002 10:24:40 AM
From: qveauriche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

I feel safe in calling CDMA the technological winner on the basis of the performance of the 1X systems relative to the GPRS systems, and the by now well documented ease with which CDMA can upgrade to 3G and the fact that GSM cannot so evolve, but instead itself will ultimately be replaced by one form of CDMA or another, depending in the case of each carrier upon a myriad of regulatory, cultural (ie how Eurocentric is carrier mgmt) and other non-technological factors. We are arguing different points. You are arguing market share, much more an investment consideration. I was talking about Gilder's call that CDMA was technologically superior to GSM. Of course,the big questions on the table now are (i) is there even a market for mobile broadband, and if so (ii) is OFDM a superior technology to CDMA for this purpose? The first is an economic and cultural question. The second is purely technological. Which is why I consider Gilder's input as worthy of my attention. As an aside, if he were up to the sort of chicanery you attribute to him, he was in a position to become a very wealthy man. His personal financial statement compared to Gary Winnick's speaks to the subject in a way that has the advantage not only of being eloquent but true as well. As for my personal naivete, guilty as charged on the tech bubble. Trying as always to learn from my mistakes.