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To: JRI who wrote (51176)	8/26/2002 10:16:44 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

JRI, f*cked if I know. I see lots of charts that have built bullish springboards for a fresh run -- flags and the like. If they break for down it will be a nasty s-t drain. Then we have the BTK break of the wedge -- that looks real now for sure. We also have semi's threatening hard not to hold that critical line in the sand I posted. It must if there is a good run left in tech. Then we have VIX and cousins up in an up market.

To: JRI who wrote (51176)	8/26/2002 10:21:05 AM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 209892

Semi's did not hold. Still, if you are a bull, and you squint real hard, plus close your left eye, you could still make a bullish Elliott case as long as SOX holds 323, so unless that falls, up can not be discounted for me. Currently at 330.

To: JRI who wrote (51176)	8/26/2002 10:36:35 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I am covering some in this down draft for a loss on ORCL and QQQ's, but better than last week -g/ng. I am targeting 85% cash, 15% short tech from my current 80/20.

To: JRI who wrote (51176)	8/26/2002 3:01:14 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

My 3 scenarios are guiding me here. I am short and don't want to be this short. That decision was made last week when we were rising, but now I have to bite the bullet and execute when price is falling and the hope and greed in me is on the rise. I am repairing my position. Scenario #1 called for a more shallow pullback than the bears were hoping for. If that is on, then I thought it had to happen in the area we turned this morning. It did so at the lower end of the QQQ range I gave for this scenario. It also did it at the 50dma and the up-channel line out of the lows (for NDX) -- anybody shorting into that was foolish. If we go to a new high, I'd probably add some shorts to lower my entry cost. Still, I like scenario #3, where we head down even further and get the bears all lathered again. If that is what unfolds, then we'd be facing real technical breakdowns (don't have 'em yet). I will have a spot in mind to cover some more -- the place where bulls would be real scared and bears would finally start mentioning a possible trip to the lows. This is where it would turn up for the whipsaw move.