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To: Eric L who wrote (2399)	8/27/2002 9:42:28 AM
From: Sam Salomon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

Eric, can you guess, why the authors may believe that the different scenarios would lead to these vastly different numbers, esp. for GPRS and CDMA 1x? TIA Sam

To: Eric L who wrote (2399)	10/27/2002 5:22:05 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9255

China Wireless Scenarios - Backgrounders and Links Updated "China’s High Technology Market" The PDF link below is to a 40 page whitepaper called "China’s High Technology Market published in July by Beijing based consultancy MFC Insight and I consider it to be a must read for anyone attempting to follow the China Scene: mfcinsight.com The whitepaper above provides background for the slides referenced below. "The Future China Mobile Market: A Scenario Workshop" The next link is to a PDF PowerPoint presentation consisting of 22 slides called "The Future China Mobile Market: A Scenario Workshop" delivered by David Almstrom of zola another Beijing consultancy: mfcinsight.com In the slides linked above Almstrom examines 3 scenarios, where all have a very different governmental focus in what the telecom market should deliver in terms of value for China. 1. The China Play Scenario - Strong governmental support for local vendors 2. The End User Driven Scenario - Balanced Operator Development 3. The Operator Centric Scenario - Duopoly Maintained Almstrom also provides "his" forecast of subscriber growth in China under each of the 3 scenarios and "his" forecast of subscriber growth in China by technology ... evidently based on what he sees as the scenario or combination of scenarios playing out. It should be noted that David Almstrom aka "The Mouth" was previously Vice President of China Business at Ericsson (China). In addition to managing zola he is an associate of MFC Insight. He may have real insight. He may simply have an abnormal bias for 3GSM. Hard to say. I would love to see the script behind the above slides. There is doubt in my mind that the scenarios he describes are, in fact, in play. "Mobile Communications Industry in the Early New Century" The link below is to an excellent article published in China Mobile Communications called "Mobile Communications Industry in the Early New Century", written by Xie Linzhen, a former deputy director general of China's Electronic Information and Products Management Department of Ministry of Information Industry who is now a professor and supervisor of the Doctorate Program of Beijing University: cicmedia.com China Mobile Communications' "Focus on 3G" The latest issue of China Mobile Communications was just published and it focuses on 3G Technology and Service Development. It contains five articles discussing 3G technology selection from various perspectives (including China Qualcomm's). They can all be accessed from this link: cicmedia.com • Probing Into China's 3G Road From Arguments Over Digital Television Standards • Reflections on Selection of 3G Networks by Chinese New Mobile Operators • Comparison of cdma2000 and WCDMA (Qualcomm) • CDMA 1x, W-CDMA and GPRS:Who Will Dominate as The Wireless Standard • Application of Adaptive Array Smart Antenna in 3G FDD System • Prediction on Development of China's Mobile Communication form 2002 to 2006 There is also a good article on MMS (The Most Successful Service following SMS) written by Ms. Li Mofang of China Mobile: • MMS: The Most Successful Service following SMS Pretty good stuff taken collectively, and pretty current. - Eric -