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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Killswitch who wrote (14490)8/27/2002 1:34:21 AM
From: macavity  Respond to of 19219
 
Good Article.

I think it makes a very good point of saying you should never use sentiment for timing. All extremes in sentiment give us is some idea of the emotional commitment and an indication of how large the counter-move might be.
Looking at sentiment for divergences and stuff is good, but I think that you have to get the right indicator for the timeframe. I think I have a reasonable measure of Intermediate-Term sentiment, but I think that it only works well as we are in a bear-market. I only use it to guage sentiment.

In short, I am slowly moving towards a purer price-based picture. I like to keep a tabs on sentiment, but boy is it hard.

At the mo, I read Intermediate Sentiment as neutral the only warning sign for me now is that VIX is actually quite cheap relative to OEX volatility. This means that options may be starting to look cheap to hedgers.

There are a lot of (technical) reasons at the mo to fear for this rally, but the trend or momentum has not turned down yet IMO.

-macavity
Long AU, ABX, OIH



To: Killswitch who wrote (14490)8/27/2002 10:52:30 AM
From: Killswitch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19219
 
Finally got short here on what may be bear flag breaks, but worried I'm chasing it. Kicking myself for not holding onto those excellent entries I had at last Thurs top.