To: steve harris who wrote (150433 ) 8/27/2002 1:00:56 PM From: tejek Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1585804 Four More Years of Federal Deficits Predicted By JIM ABRAMS .c The Associated Press WASHINGTON (Aug. 27) - The federal budget will be in deficit for the next four years and will only see substantial movement into the black in later years if the tax cuts enacted last year expire in 2010 as scheduled, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday. The CBO also projected that this fiscal year's budget deficit will hit $157 billion, a result of ``a sharp decline in tax revenues coupled with double digit growth in spending.'' It said the outlook for fiscal 2003, starting Oct. 1, was a budget shortfall of $145 billion, and that the federal ledger will only return to the plus side with a $15 billion surplus in 2006. The White House last month put this year's deficit at around $165 billion. The return of deficit spending this year, the first since 1997 and after a $127 billion surplus in fiscal 2001, is generally attributed to the fragile economy, the shaky stock market and the government's response to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Democrats also blame the 10-year, $1.35 trillion tax cut that President Bush pushed through last year. The budget numbers are likely to become a factor in this fall's midterm elections, with the parties blaming each other for frittering away a budget surplus that only 18 months ago was estimated at $5.6 trillion through 2011 if Social Security money is included. It now appears inevitable that the government will have to dip into Social Security surpluses to pay for other programs, an action both parties have pledged to avoid doing. The CBO said that if the tax cuts expire in 2010, the budget will return to substantial surpluses in the years 2010 through 2012 and that the government will be $1 trillion in the black over the 2003-2012 period. Over that 10-year period, the CBO said, the general budget will record a $1.5 trillion deficit, compensated for by a $2.5 trillion surplus in the Social Security fund. The Bush administration and congressional Republicans are pushing hard to make the tax cuts, which affect estate taxes and taxes on married couples, permanent. The White House's Office of Management and Budget last month estimated the 2003 deficit at $109 billion, but said the government will return to a surplus of $53 billion in fiscal 2005 and record a cumulative surplus of $827 billion in the 2003-2012 period. OMB spokesman Trent Duffy said the White House and congressional budget offices agree that the war on terrorism and the recession - rather than tax cuts - are the main causes of the return to deficit spending. ``We have a shot at getting back to balance if we do what the president is talking about.'' He said that entails encouraging economic growth while holding down government spending. Democratic plans to increase spending could add trillions to the long-term deficit, Duffy said. The CBO projections assume current rates of spending, and do not include ambitious plans by the Bush administration to further increase defense spending or efforts by both parties to give seniors a prescription drug benefit. The surplus projected over the next decade is nearly $1.4 trillion smaller than CBO estimated last March. The office said reductions in revenue estimates and hikes in spending were equally responsible for that change. 08/27/02 09:13 EDT Copyright 2002 The Associated Press.