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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4743)	8/27/2002 6:50:27 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

>>Thats the problem I have with others that are expecting a decline in real estate- most are on the trading/bear threads and are also expecting a double dip... I am not. << lizzie... from the link you posted.. ""People were throwing money at houses, but that's all stopped," Borsian said. "People are more thoughtful. The summers have a tendency to balance things out." greater fool theory in action. even if we don't get the technical "double dip"....growth rates a 2.5 to 3 percent are not sufficient, imo, to sustain the type of income growth that would be necessary for home prices to continue moving up at what i consider to be an unsustainable pace. (double digits)

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (4743)	8/27/2002 7:01:16 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Lizzie, Yes. Unless we get a super bubble like growth (5-7% growth in GDP) or have a government book cooking led fierce stock market rally, I don't see the housing market avoid the inevitable. A soft landing is possible, and I am sure not expecting a hard landing as we have experienced with the NAZ. BTW, I am expecting a DOW 5800 scenario before it's totally over, followed by a decade long side way trading in the market before another new bull market lands. US gets too many problems to deal with and the debt issue is just one of them. You can bet that I am expecting a nasty surprise for the housing market down the road. But like lots of people on the thread, I am not sure what is the best way to hedge against such a scenario, if there is indeed one. The good news is that my family is in excellent economic condition and I have prepared for the worst (5 year of no job for me and my wife). That's not likely to happen. larry