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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17979)	8/28/2002 8:10:20 AM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Noranda smelter at half capacity as strike continues NORANDA'S Horne copper smelter in northwestern Ontario is still operating at 50-60% capacity as 510 unionised workers who walked off the job on June 18 continue to strike. A company spokesman told Dow Jones a conciliator and mediator have been appointed but no talks between the management and unions representing the striking workers are planned. The smelter, which produced 188,000 tonnes of copper in 2001, was closed for three weeks from July 21 as a result of the strike. Noranda also closed its CCR copper refinery in Montreal for three weeks from July 28 due to a reduced supply of copper anodes, which are usually supplied by the Horne smelter. The strike centres on a new labour agreement after the previous agreement at the plant expired in February. Negotiations going months beyond the labour agreement date are not uncommon in Ontario. The last strike at Horne was in 1986 and lasted three months.

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17979)	8/28/2002 12:46:50 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

I wish I had Fleckenstein's hair, much better than mine /jw

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (17979)	8/28/2002 1:29:05 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 36161

sure, Fleck has a lot of wisdom (too bad he is a bear year in, year out, since 1902) good point about risk rising with higher stock prices and people dropping their guard, figuring storm has passed instead of lightening up, as Fleck suggests, some people will add to shares, figuring the storm has passed most investors have a poor sense of valuing much of anything but droves of the public retail investing community are turned off agreed on the learned point that investors can lose money their losses now put them back to 1998 in "reverse time flow" wasnt aware that Dell acct receivables had become a problem makes sense when cash is in short supply nationwide it is good to challenge shakey and unreliable forward guidance the challenge to buybacks is right on the next biggest sham to stock share value behind mgmt stock options is company share buyback programs the hidden tax in share dilution from options is clear the hidden tax on future product development from diversion of scarce capital toward share buybacks is less clear the immediate payoff is reduced supply in the S/D equation but the loss to future product devmt comes later I think Fleck will miss the eventual stock turnaround but since it likely wont happen for several more quarters, he is safe now I like his stress of the biggest bubble in world history they sure dont understand what its bust means to economies I agree, but would make this point differently WHEN GOVT DOESNT UNDERSTAND THE CAUSES OF THE BUBBLE CREATION, AND LATER WITNESSES ITS BUST, THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE BOUND TO LEAD TO WORSE PROBLEMS since their continued "cures" represent more of the same tonic that created the financial sickness if you continue to offer JackDaniels to an alcoholic attempting to recover thru rehab, then he falls if you offer a field trip to the core reactor of a nuke plant to a cancer victim attempting to recover, then he falls Fleck speaks of a public that desperately refuses to give up their reluctance will not outlast the reality of the need both to exhaust the resolution of the bubble bust and to cleanse balance sheets at every level of our society and economy we are a long long way from the cleansing resolution in fact, I argue that we are farther from resolution than we were in July2000 I love the constant talk about "capitulation" the fact that CAP is discussed even the fact that CAP is declared to have occurred the fact that people even show awareness of CAP means that CAP has nowhere near been seen CAP is concomitant with ennui, disinterest, disgust, contempt why cannot the public see the obvious parallels between the 1999 Naz Bubble and the current Real Estate bubble ??? forcing a higher appraisal is like forcing an analyst stock reco with target price underwriting both an 80% LTV mortgage and its 20% downpaymt is like securing extra commercial loans or bond debt to finance stock buybacks buying a house in order to lock that low rate regardless of high price is like buying their stupid dotcom or telecom just to sell it later to a greater fool using home equity to continue financing the good life is like using stock margin money to finance the same using a home as a piggy bank is like using a mutual fund as a savings account if people could offer secondary issuances on their homes, they would, but so far the only way to do so is to take out more debt, unlike stocks which can simply sell newly minted shares Fleck might want to remind us occasionally that at some time in the past 30 years, he might have harbored a single bullish thought about stocks everything I have read by him since 1990 has been negative but he makes good points that have certain value / jim p.s. great hair