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To: marginmike who wrote (51451)8/28/2002 10:28:32 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
I have held fast to the view that tech will yet make another low. That is a big enough picture for me on that side.

As for the S&P H&S, it's easy. Ignore all the useless debate and spend some money on doom puts 3 or 4 months out and be done with it. I don't think it's worth any more than that unless it starts to shake and bake in a down trend. If ya wanted to time said puts, imo you'd be reading the tapes of the financials.



To: marginmike who wrote (51451)8/28/2002 11:16:40 AM
From: AllansAlias  Respond to of 209892
 
XOI breaking for down out of that ending diagonal.



To: marginmike who wrote (51451)8/28/2002 11:18:27 AM
From: reaper  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
mm -- these are my thoughts exactly. the big H&S is there, and NOBODY really believes that it could really play out in a textbook manner. a lot of the FA bears like Biggs, Wein, A. Gary Shilling, Martin Barnes are turning bullish. lots of people talking about maybe a low-volume retest of the lows; nobody talking about just crashing through them (excepting AA and his expectation for new tech lows). EVERYBODY ('cept me <g>) saying the bull market in gov't bonds is over.

i still think that the most 'out of consensus' scenario is hard down on stocks and a continuation of the treasury market rally (with spreads widening so that corporates don't participate as much).

of course, we could whipsaw around a bunch before this happens. that's why i personally think trying to trade this market is crazy, and am just sitting around w/ my long-term short-and-hold positions, with a handful of really cheap longs to partially hedge upside.

Cheers



To: marginmike who wrote (51451)8/28/2002 12:30:55 PM
From: augieboo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Everyone I see is in disbelief that the big H&S could really play out. They see it, but refuse to believe we will go to 500-600 spx.

MM, I'm not in disbelief!

1. The big H&S WILL really play out -- although not necessarily in text book fashion.

2. We WILL go to 500-600 SPX -- probably by next July.

There, everybody bookmark this post so you can all bow down to me in awe later. (tee hee hee)


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